I NEVER had Aidan O’Brien down as a fan of the cult TV show ‘The Wire’, but there was more than a hint of arch-villain Marlo Stansfield when Gary O’Brien asked him about how he was going to place his many classy middle-distance and staying older horses, his response being that it is ‘one of those good problems.’
Two of that cohort won at the Curragh last Saturday, the trainer pointing out that Continuous had been on the sidelines while ‘giving other horses a chance’, while he also made similar comments about Point Lonsdale in a recent interview on Racing TV ahead of the Ebor meeting.
Sometimes these problems sort themselves out, with setbacks and what not, but not this year for Ballydoyle as their extensive depth in these divisions has come with health.
Per current IHRB official ratings, O’Brien has 14 individual horses rated 110 or higher that have raced over at least a mile and a half, and 12 of them are currently fit and after a recent run.
That sort of depth creates a need to disperse them through the season to avoid clashes, with O’Brien even suggesting that next year was in his mind with some of them in that same Gary O’Brien interview.
His two winners from Saturday, Continuous (OR 119) and Grosvenor Square (OR 112), are more backend types, the former having just his second start of 2024 at the weekend, the latter having a mid-season break after his Derby trial run at Chester.
Strange decision
The decision to run Continuous in the 10-furlong Royal Whip seemed a strange one; he had not run over that trip since the Prix du Jockey Club last year and looked a strong stayer at a mile and a half, not to mention winning an English Leger.
But his trainer saw no other option given where his stablemates were running and he coped well with the drop in trip, a tactical change to racing prominently helping as he beat a solid sort in Trustyourinstinct, the pair of them forward from the outset, only needing a hand ride to win half a length.
O’Brien suggested the Irish Champion Stakes would be next where a top five finish would be acceptable with the Arc the big autumn target before perhaps taking in an international campaign.
Grosvenor Square is another that has seen a tactical shift lately, but whereas Continuous going forward was likely specific to Saturday, O’Brien said that they long had forcing tactics in mind for Grosvenor Square but didn’t want to ask him to do so early in the year, preferring to build him up instead, while also saying that he is really a horse for next year.
How race was run
It is hard to know what he achieved in winning the Irish St Leger Trial by 20 lengths, that sort of winning margin in a flat race sometimes more to do with how the race was run, and his two main market rivals, Absurde and A Piece Of Heaven, have big prize money targets upcoming that dwarf the €32,450 that went to the winner here.
Absurde was disappointing on the surface but since joining Willie Mullins he seems a horse that peaks at the end of a series of races, as when he won the Ebor and County Hurdle, rather than one that is best fresh.
In any case, this effort backed up what Grosvenor Square did when employing similar tactics in the Curragh Cup to finish second to Tower Of London, that one showing a huge ability ceiling to win from way off the pace, completing the final three furlongs in a finishing speed of 113% versus 100% for Grosvenor Square, a scarcely believable difference for two rivals that were separated by just over a length at the end.
Kyprios may be king in this division, and we will find out more about the three-year-olds at York, but Tower Of London is much more than mere pretender based on what he did last time.
IRISH-trained juveniles have had a fantastic week or so at Deauville, landing four races, with Whistlejacket’s win in the Morny the centrepiece.
Ryan Moore was able to get the rail from stall two and make all without the pressure he got on the lead in the Phoenix Stakes the previous Saturday, the two he beat not having things go ideally.
Both the runner-up Rashabar and the third Daylight came from the rear of the field, the former having to make his challenge out wide away from the rail, the latter needing to wait for her gap until quite late, but even so this was a significant achievement from Whistlejacket.
The standout feature of his win was not so much the performance itself but the timeframe it was achieved in, little more than a week on from another Group 1 run, taking in the two races apparently the plan all along.
Aidan O’Brien commented afterwards that ‘very few horses could do it’ and very few trainers could manage it either, instances of juveniles backing up quickly after a top-level run unusual.
Previous fortnight
Since 2008, 113 two-year-olds in Britain and Ireland ran back in a race of any sort after running at Group 1 level within the previous fortnight with 26 of them winning. O’Brien trained 15 of those winners (from 40 runners) and they were very profitable to bet blind, returning a level-stakes profit of 36.16 points and an actual over expected of 1.58.
In that period, only two other trainers (Jim Bolger and Richard Fahey with three each) managed this more than once, so while the horse might be important, the human might be more so.
Joseph O’Brien sent out the other three Deauville winners, the trio well-placed to land valuable prizes. Cowardofthecounty won the Prix Francois Boutin on August 11th, still a bit sluggish from the stalls but strong at the finish, the step up to seven furlongs suiting.
His runs at Royal Ascot and the Curragh had been underwhelming but he may just be a horse that wants a trip, a mile likely to suit sooner rather than later, and it must have been pure ability that saw him win so early in the season.
Finding plenty
Apples And Bananas landed the ultra-valuable listed race on the round mile that opened Saturday’s card, initially lairy around the final bend but finding plenty to win.
This race had a total prize fund of €130,000, a huge sum when compared to an equivalent Irish race like the Churchill Stakes at Tipperary (worth €45,000 in total), more valuable even than today’s Group 2 Futurity Stakes at €120,000.
Perhaps the best spot in terms of placing was Mojave River to win a maiden worth a total of €160,000 last Thursday, the contest sponsored by Arqana and confined to unraced two-year-old fillies.
Mojave River was bought at the Arqana December Sale for €17,000 in December 2022 before selling for €105,000 as a breezer last May, and while it is hard to know what she achieved in winning by two lengths from eight rivals, she did it well.
She was certainly ready to go on debut given the prize fund in a season where many of the Joseph O’Brien juveniles have needed a run, that group three winners from 43 runners in 2024, the most recent winner on May 17th.
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