WHEN the dust settled on the freshly published weights for the Randox Grand National on Tuesday, it was two Meathbased trainers represented at the top of the market, and neither of them were the triple winner of the race Gordon Elliott.
Gavin Cromwell, responsible for last year’s runner-up Vanillier, and John McConnell, whose Mahler Mission was second in the Coral Gold Cup earlier this season, can harbour dreams of a career defining win at Aintree this April.
But so will plenty of other Irish trainers - namely the two powerhouse yards of Elliott and Willie Mullins. Martin Greenwood, the British Horseracing Authority’s handicapper for staying chasers, predicted a mark of 145 would get you a run in the newly reduced field of 34. There are 57 horses rated 145 and above and 43 of them are Irish-trained (75%).
Elliott has 23 entries in total, eight of which are inside the of 34, and 15 inside the top 57. It was no surprise that he nominated Cross Country hope Galvin as one of his more notable entries. The Ronnie Bartlett-owned Grade 1 winner has been allotted a mark 8lb below his Irish assessment, with the British handicapping team staying consistent with their treating of cross country form - he has been well held in two handicaps over the cross country course at Cheltenham earlier this season but is one of the principals for the Cross Country at the Festival next month.
Mullins has nine horses inside the 34, and 12 inside the 57. Bookmakers rated the J.P. McManus-owned pair of Capodanno and last year’s Irish Grand National winner I Am Maximus as his best chances, both in and around the 25/1 mark.
The champion trainer is likely to run plenty of his National entries between now and the race, which has proven key to finding the winner in recent years, notably last year when Corach Rambler was 10lb well in off the back of his second win in the Ultima Handicap Chase.
Rambler
Lucinda Russell’s chaser is the shortest priced of the British-trained representation in his bid to emulate Tiger Roll as a back-to-back winner and he will run at Cheltenham in preparation again, this time in the Gold Cup, where it is foreseeable that he could easily elevate his current rating of 159 and return to Aintree well treated again.
There hasn’t been an English-trained winner since Oliver Sherwood’s Many Clouds in 2015 and the home team look up against it again. Jonjo O’Neill’s Monbeg Genius is the shortest in the betting to break that duck, while Kittys Light is the best Welsh-trained hope - there hasn’t been a Welsh winner in 119 years.
Reflecting on the field on Tuesday, Greenwood said: “While there are slightly less horses rated 155-plus this year, the band of horses rated 150-154 remains strong and I think this year’s race looks strong on quality.
“There are horses that still need to fulfil all the qualification requirements by March 26th. These include Le Milos and 11 Irish-trained entries, with the main reason being they have not had the necessary six runs over fences.”
Bar Galvin, the majority of the Irish-trained horses have been allotted either the same mark as the one they have in Ireland or are just 1lb higher in the National. These include Hewick, who heads the weights on his Irish official mark of 169.
“I think the days of compression of the weights for horses at the top of the handicap (i.e. treating them more leniently than in a normal race), which reached its peak under my predecessor Phil Smith, are now well and truly over,” Greenwood explained.
“This is due to the evolving nature of the Grand National itself and how it has changed in recent years.”
Regarding the likely cut-off point for runners, Greenwood said: “I always say if a horse is rated 145 then you are pretty much certain to get a run on the day and the five-year average rating necessary to obtain a run is 143.
“Last year the lowest rated horse to get in was rated 137, although that was something of an anomaly as it was the first time since 2013 that horses had raced from outside of the handicap.
“With the reduction in field size to 34 runners this year, I would stand by my original advice that a rating of at least 145 is what you need to line up on the day.”
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