DEPENDING on how they have been assessed by the British Horseracing Authority’s handicapping team, there will have been frustration and relief across Ireland this week as the annual weights reveal for handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival took place.

It remains an unsatisfactory process that connections of Irish-trained runners in the meeting’s handicaps will not know their rating in Britain until being entered for races and assessed by the BHA, while they typically must compete off higher marks compared to how they are rated domestically.

Differences between British and Irish marks can be stark. For example, six horses from Ireland in the 2023 Cheltenham weights see no change made from their domestic ratings, yet another seven have been handed marks at least 10lb higher than how they are assessed on home soil.

The burning question at this time each year is just how well (or badly) Irish-trained horses have fared at the weights compared to previous Festivals.

Juvenile hurdlers

The Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle has been farmed by Irish trainers for the last five years and some of those finishes have turned into greenwashes, with the visitors responsible for the 1-2-4 last year and 1-2-5 in 2021, 1-3-4 in 2020 and 1-2-3 in 2019.

Against that backdrop, and the fact that Joseph O’Brien has scooped three of Britain’s biggest juvenile prizes this season, it was hardly a shock to see the average increase on Irish ratings in this division rise to 5.4lb.

The same figure was 3.3lb last year and as low as 2.9lb the year before, but the average differential previously sat closer to the current level at 5.2lb in 2019.

A key factor to bear in mind throughout all handicap comparisons, though, is how British-trained runners on the whole appear to be rated lower than in previous years.

For example, at this stage of the Boodles entries in 2021 there were 12 British contenders with ratings of 125 or higher. This time around there are just six. The median rating of all British entries two years ago was 126, but that is now lowered to 120.

In short, Irish-trained juveniles will be running off even higher marks than has been the case before, relative to their home ratings, and the average British runner in the Boodles is rated lower than before.

Big-race favourite Tekao, trained by Willie Mullins, was not missed by the British assessor and is now 7lb higher than his Irish mark, while the Emmet Mullins-trained McTigue was hit with a 6lb hike.

Two of the best treated Irish horses in the Boodles are the JP McManus-owned Common Practice and Cougar, both holding marks 2lb higher than their Irish assessments.

Non-juvenile handicap hurdlers

Irish-trained runners won all four of the non-juvenile handicap hurdles at the 2021 Festival when the average difference in ratings was 3.9lb, and a slight rise to 4.9lb last year wasn’t enough to stop the visiting team taking home three of the four events.

With that in mind, it’s slightly surprising that the BHA has opted to rate the same category of horse fractionally lower this season at an average of 4.3lb higher than their Irish marks.

However, it’s possible this could be linked to the fact there is arguably not the same depth of unexposed novice hurdlers tackling the senior handicap hurdles this season after qualification rules for these races were changed. At least four runs over hurdles are now required (previously three) for novices to compete in this category, meaning the likes of last season’s County Hurdle winner State Man would not have been eligible to run under the new conditions.

The quartet of Irish-trained runners to be hit with double-figure rises are unlikely to be high enough in the weights to run, but prominent contenders whose connections will not be impressed by this week’s announcement include Pertemps Final hopes Maxxum and The Bosses Oscar (both 7lb higher in Britain), multiple-entered Seddon (up 7lb) and Coral Cup challenger Captain Conby (up 6lb).

Level Neverending’s 9lb higher mark will actually be likely to help him to secure a place at the bottom of the Pertemps Final weights.

Veterans Sharjah and Summerville Boy, as well as the Gordon Elliott-trained pair, Zanahiyr and Call Me Lyreen, were handed the same as their Irish marks, while 12 others were rated 1lb or 2lb higher than is the case in Ireland. These include Pied Piper, Run For Oscar, Saint Sam, Salvador Ziggy and Shewearsitwell.

Interestingly, the average rise for Willie Mullins’ non-juvenile handicap hurdlers remains below the overall average differential at 3.8lb (was 3.9lb last year), and the handicappers have gone slightly easier on Gordon Elliott’s runners this time around after Coral Cup winner Commander Of Fleet was his only horse to finish in the first two in this category of race last year. His non-juvenile handicap hurdlers were an average of 5.3lb higher last year but are back down to 4.1lb higher now.

Handicap chasers

One of the most perplexing moves in last year’s weights reveal was how the British handicappers came down harder on Irish-trained handicap chasers than previous years, considering the record of these horses in such races couldn’t have been described as prolific.

The average differential curiously shot up to 3.8lb last year, having previously been as low as 1.3lb in 2018 and 2.4lb in 2021.

Throw in some more lenient handicapping of British-trained runners, and it was hardly a surprise that all four handicap chases stayed on home soil last year. The British truly dominated this division.

Ireland provided seven of the 24 runners in the Ultima where there was a British 1-2-3-4-5-7-8, while Britain was also responsible for six of the first eight home in the Grand Annual (six of the 16 runners were trained in Ireland). Ireland supplied nine of the 20 starters in the Kim Muir but British-trained representatives finished 1-2-3-5. The home team also enjoyed a clean sweep from first to ninth in the Plate (three of the 15 runners were Irish).

Sensibly, the handicappers have relented slightly and the average differential between British and Irish marks is now back down to 3lb this year (from 3.8lb).

The Irish chasers worst treated the weights are the Gordon Elliott-trained pair, Folcano (up 8lb) and Mars Harper (up 7lb), as well as Seddon, who also is 7lb higher in this sphere. Magners Plate favourite So Scottish and Grand Annual hope Dads Lad were among seven Irish chasers to go up 5lb.

On the flip side, Punitive (Ultima and Kim Muir) and Riviere D’Etel (entered in Grand Annual but earmarked for Mares’ Chase) are the only two chasers with the option of running off the same as their Irish marks.

It could be noteworthy that of the 10 Irish-trained chasers to be given a 1lb higher mark in Britain, six represent Willie Mullins, who has never won a handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival (0-39 record).

His handicap chase entries are rated an average of 1.6lb higher than in Ireland (down from 3.3lb in 2021 and 2022). Gordon Elliott’s handicap chasers are, on average, 3.2lb higher in Britain (down from 4.1lb last year).

Byker

(Charles Byrnes)

Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, Tuesday

A 4lb higher mark in Britain than Ireland for this promising four-year-old is less than the average rise that visiting juvenile hurdlers were hit with at the weights reveal, and there’s every chance we haven’t seen the best of him yet either. He should be able to step forward nicely from his recent third at Naas in a race that has produced three of the last four winners of the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle. Odds of 8/1 look more than fair.

Shoot First

(Charles Byrnes)

Pertemps Final, Thursday

It could be a massive week for Charles Byrnes and Shoot First could be able to get him off to a flyer on day three of the meeting. Tucked away for a tilt at the Pertemps Final ever since beating a well-handicapped runner-up at Cheltenham in October, he looks ideally-suited to this task. Just a 2lb higher mark in Britain than Ireland makes him a deserving favourite at 4/1.

Imagine

(Gordon Elliott)

Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle, Friday

Stepping up to an extended two and a half miles should bring out a fair deal of improvement in this talented novice, who was handed a 4lb higher mark in Britain this week (slightly below the average for non-juvenile handicap hurdlers). He makes plenty of appeal at 8/1. Gordon Elliott has never made any secret of his desire to win the race named after his old boss and has a cracking record here.