IT’S going to be good to see Baaeed again today in the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes at Newbury.

William Haggas’ horse was a revelation last season, his first season as a racehorse, going six for six, winning the Group 1 Prix du Moulin at Longchamp in September and rounding off the year by beating Palace Pier in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot in October.

He sets a high standard among the older milers this season, he sets the standard that the three-year-olds will have to meet when the generations converge, as they usually do in the Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, and this is a good starting point for him into the season.

That said, Mother Earth could get closer to him today than the market suggests. Winner of the 1000 Guineas on her debut last season, Aidan O’Brien’s filly thrived on her racing as a three-year-old, winning the Group 1 Prix Rothschild as well as the Guineas, and finishing a close-up fourth behind six-time Group 1 winner Golden Sixty in the Hong Kong Mile at Sha Tin in December.

On her final run in Europe last season, she finished fifth in the QE2, just over three lengths behind Baaeed, but she ran better than that result indicates.

Held up

She was keen early on and, consequently, she was held up at the back of the field through the early stages of the race.

She was still last as they raced inside the two-furlong marker. She had to make her ground towards the far side and among traffic, and she finished off her race well, as Baaeed had a clear shot at Palace Pier out towards the near side.

Unlike Baaeed, Mother Earth has already had a run this season, she put up a nice performance to win the Group 3 Park Express Stakes at the Curragh last month. She wasn’t flashy in winning that day, but she kept on nicely to beat last year’s Blue Wind Stakes and Kilboy Estate Stakes winner Insinuendo.

Aidan O’Brien mentioned the Lockinge as a potential next target immediately after the Park Express. It is probable that this has been her main early-season target for a while, and consequently, she could come on significantly for her seasonal debut.

She could be primed for today. Of course, she is going to have to be better today than she was then if she is going to beat Baaeed, 11lb her superior on official ratings and from whom she only receives the 3lb mares’ allowance. But she is a top-class filly, a mile is her trip, she has race fitness on her side, and she could get closer to him today than the betting suggests.

London Gold Cup

Earlier in the day, the usual band of unexposed three-year-olds with bucketloads of potential have assembled for the BetVictor London Gold Cup. It is a fascinating renewal, as it usually is, but Red Vineyard could be the value.

Winner of his maiden on good ground at Ffos Las on his racecourse debut last September, the Slade Power colt was well beaten on his second and final run as a juvenile over seven furlongs at Newbury, but that was on soft ground, and he bounced back to form on his debut this season in a 10-furlong handicap at Sandown.

Sent off the outsider of the six-strong field that day, he travelled well through his race up on the outside of the leader Al Qareem.

He picked up well to hit the front just inside the two-furlong marker, and he kept on strongly all the way to the line to win nicely.

The handicapper raised him by just 5lb for that performance to a mark of 83, and that was more than fair.

With just three runs on his CV, in common with several of his rivals, he has has the potential to go well beyond today’s handicap rating.

The form of that Sandown race looks stronger now than it did then, with third-placed Bolthole winning a handicap at Newmarket on Thursday off a 2lb higher mark, and Al Qareem winning a good handicap at York yesterday off a 3lb higher mark.

Karl Burke’s horse may have progressed for the step up to a mile and a half yesterday, but he still paid a nice compliment to Red Vineyard.

This 10-furlong trip looks like a good trip for Red Vineyard, and the good ground should be ideal. He could run a big race.

Recommended

Red Vineyard, 2.45 Newbury, 13/2 (generally), 1 point win

Mother Earth, 3.20 Newbury, 13/2 (generally), 1 point win