YOU have to start your Qipco 2000 Guineas analysis with Aidan O’Brien. The champion trainer has trained the Guineas winner 10 times, more times than any other trainer in the history of the race. And it’s a long history. It goes back over 200 years.

It has been said that he’s going through a quiet spell in the Guineas now, that he hasn’t had the winner since Magna Grecia in 2019.

But that’s only three renewals ago, and Wichita was second in 2020 and Luxembourg was third in 2022, after that stumble after the start. It’s a bit harsh to call it a quiet spell.

Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear have been the Ballydoyle Guineas horses this year for a while now. Winner of his maiden at Naas in July, Auguste Rodin stepped forward from that to win the Group 2 KPMG Champions Stakes at Leopardstown on Irish Champions’ Weekend, before going to Doncaster in October and winning the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Stakes.

He did well to win that day, because the ground was softer than ideal – he was almost taken out of the race because of the ground – and it was a strangely-run race, they split into two groups, with Auguste Rodin racing in third of the three horses who raced down the near side.

None of that fazed the Deep Impact colt though. He picked up smartly and he kept on well to win impressively from Epictetus, who won the Listed Blue Riband Trial at Epsom last week.

Auguste Rodin will undoubtedly step out in trip as the season progresses, he will probably morph into a high-class middle-distance horse as we move into the season.

It is interesting that he is no better than 2/1 for the Derby, ante-post, for a race that is a month away. He is only slightly bigger for the Derby than he is for the Guineas, today, a race for which there are no ante-post uncertainties.

It may be that he will get away with the distance today. Camelot got away with it, Sea The Stars got away with it. It’s a class thing.

And it may be that Auguste Rodin will have the class to win the Guineas over a mile even though he will probably be at his best over 10 or 12 furlongs. But he is short.

Different

Little Big Bear is different. Whereas Auguste Rodin will probably be operating at the lower end of the range of his distance capabilities today, Little Big Bear will probably be operating at the higher end of his.

The No Nay Never colt showed lots of speed last year. He won his maiden over five furlongs, he won the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot, not the Coventry. And he won the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh in August over six furlongs. The last Phoenix Stakes winner to win the Guineas was George Washington in 2005/’06.

That said, Little Big Bear was seriously impressive in winning the Phoenix Stakes. He showed a lightning turn of foot to come seven lengths clear of Persian Force, who had won the Group 2 July Stakes on his previous run.

And he wasn’t stopping at the end. You wouldn’t have concluded, after watching that race, that six furlongs was the absolute limit of his range.

As well as that, he won the Group 3 Anglesey Stakes over six and a half furlongs, he was impressive in winning it. It was a Group 3 race, not a Group 1 race but, again, he wasn’t stopping at the line.

On that evidence, you would have been surprised if he wouldn’t have got seven furlongs as a juvenile, and the talk after the Anglesey Stakes was of the National Stakes or the Dewhurst.

You can argue the case on breeding too. He is by No Nay Never, who was at his best over five and six furlongs and who never went beyond six and a half, but his progeny do.

Alcohol Free won a Sussex Stakes on soft ground and a Coronation Stakes on heavy, Wichita finished second in a Guineas and won a Park Stakes, the Japanese horse Unicorn Lion has won two Group 3 races over 10 furlongs.

Little Big Bear’s dam is Adventure Seeker, a granddaughter of Arc winner All Along, who won a listed race in France over 10 furlongs, and her best offspring before Little Big Bear was American Graffiti, who won three times over 10 furlongs. Little Big Bear is a relaxed horse who should give himself every chance of getting the trip.

Of course, it is a deep race. You have to forgive Dewhurst Stakes winner Chaldean his blip in the Greenham Stakes, which you easily can.

You can just put it down as one of those things. That said, he didn’t have the prep run that Andrew Balding obviously wanted to give him there, and a bigger danger to the Ballydoyle duo may be Royal Scotsman, who just failed by a neck to catch Chaldean in the Dewhurst.

Sakheer was impressive in winning the Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury in September, and Silver Knott kept on well to beat the aforementioned Epictetus in the Autumn Stakes in October, racing away from the stands rail, before just getting beaten by Victoria Road in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. It’s a fascinating Guineas, it usually is, but Little Big Bear could be the value.

Chaloner Stakes

Earlier on the day, Azure Blue could be the answer to the Listed Chaloner Stakes. Michael Dods’ filly was seriously progressive last season, starting off her season with defeat in a handicap at York off a mark of 78, and rounding it off with two wins at Newmarket off marks of 89 and 94 respectively.

The handicapper raised her by another 4lb for her last win to a mark of 98, and that still leaves her with 8lb to find with Gale Force Maya, but there is every chance that she can continue her progress this season. She could take a good step forward today, in a race that has surely been her target for a little while.

This is her distance, all but one of her runs have been over today’s six-furlong trip and, importantly, she goes well at the track. She is two for two on the Rowley Mile, and, as a bonus, she won one of her two races on Newmarket’s July Course.

She can be slowly away, and Newmarket is generally a track at which pace is rewarded, but they were coming from behind at the Craven meeting, and Azure Blue came from off the pace in each of her two wins over today’s course and distance at the end of last season.

Azure Blue, 2.15 Newmarket, 9/2 (generally), 1pt win

Little Big Bear, 4.40 Newmarket, 11/2 (generally), 1pt win