THE Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup isn’t easy. Unsurprisingly, you can make cases for many.

American Affair did well to win the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last time after meeting with traffic as he came with his winning run down the near side.

He obviously goes into the race in good form, but the Portland was only a week ago, and he has to shoulder a 5lb penalty today. The handicapper raised him by just 2lb. And he is fairly short, and the step back up to six furlongs might not be ideal, and his low draw may not be an advantage.

Rohaan has been building back up to a big run and he can race off a handicap mark of 96, 20lb lower than his peak, and he was beaten less than two lengths in the race last year off an 8lb higher mark. But the ground may not be as soft as he likes it.

Mostabshir did well in the Stewards’ Cup last time to get as close as he did after missing the break, but he still may be better over seven furlongs than over six.

Lethal Levi is similar; he is effective over six furlongs, he finished fourth in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, but he ran a big race in the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket in July over seven.

He probably put up a career-best performance last time when he made just about all the running to win a competitive seven-furlong handicap at Newbury last month.

Good pointer

Ramazan finished second to his stable companion Dare To Hope in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last time, a race that can be a good pointer to the Ayr Gold Cup. He won the ‘race’ on the far side, is only 3lb higher than he was then, and he is a player, but at a slightly bigger price, Billyjoh could be the value of the race.

Mick Appleby’s horse hasn’t won since he won a handicap at Chelmsford in February off a mark of 83, but he has run some big races in defeat in the meantime.

He found only the high-class English Oak too good when he finished second in the Buckingham Palace Handicap over seven furlongs at Royal Ascot in June, and he came from a long way back to get up and again fill the runner-up spot in a good seven-furlong handicap at the Goodwood Festival at the end of July.

The draw wasn’t kind to him when he went back to the Goodwood Festival four days later for the Stewards’ Cup, when he did really well to finish off his race as well as he did from his low draw and take third place.

The winner made all the running from the highest stall, nearest the stands rail, and the first six home emerged, respectively, from stalls 28, 27, four, 24, 26 and 20. Billyjoh was the one who raced from stall four, out towards the centre.

He was well-beaten in a heritage handicap at York last time, but he wasn’t well-drawn there either. He was drawn in stall 19 and he raced on the near side, in a race in which the low numbers on the far side dominated.

Also, he hadn’t run at York before that day, so you can allow him that. He hasn’t run at Ayr yet either, so the track is an unknown, but he has other factors in his favour.

A fast-run six furlongs in a big field on good ground or ground just on the fast side of good should be ideal for him. Also, his high draw is probably an advantage. He could run a big race.

Doonside Cup

Earlier on the day, Caviar Heights could also run a big race in the Listed Doonside Cup.

Winner of the Listed Newmarket Stakes on Guineas weekend and good enough to contest Economics’ Dante at York in mid-May, he was too keen and up with the pace in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, a race in which the hold-up horses came to the fore.

But he was much better last time in the Listed Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton when, held up early on, he was a little keen again, but he still kept on well enough to take third place behind Kalpana.

He was no match for the winner that day, but there was no disgrace in finishing six and a half lengths behind Andrew Balding’s filly, as evidenced by the fact that she bolted up next time in the September Stakes and is now a short-priced favourite for the Filly & Mare Stakes at Ascot on Champions’ Day.

The runner-up in the Glasgow Stakes, God’s Window, finished third behind Kalpana in the Glasgow Stakes, while the fourth horse, Rouge Sellier, Sir Mark Prescott’s filly, finished second behind the impressive Beechwood in the Listed Oyster Stakes at Galway two weeks ago.

If he learns to settle a little better, Caviar Heights could take a good step forward now, and the drop back down to 10 furlongs, and the slightly bigger field, should generate the faster pace that could help him settle. He is lightly raced, he has run just nine times, and there could be more to come.