THERE are Ebor winners for whom the Ebor is a destination and there are Ebor winners for whom the Ebor is a stepping stone to even bigger things, and Sweet William could fall into the latter category.

He could be a Jupiter Island or a Further Flight or a Sergeant Cecil. It is unlikely that he is a Sea Pigeon, a nine-year-old Ebor winner who stepped on to win the Champion Hurdle at 10 and again at 11. It is unlikely that there will ever be a(nother) Sea Pigeon.

There is no knowing how good Sweet William could be though, because he has done everything that has been asked of him this season so far fairly easily.

He has been comfortable in winning each of his last three races, stepping forward and stepping up the handicap with each win. Now he finds himself racing today off an effective handicap rating of 99, under his 4lb penalty for his latest victory at Goodwood, but that is 4lb lower than his new mark of 103.

He has raced just six times too, so he has the potential to progress beyond even his new mark. And he is trained by the Gosdens, who have won two of the last five Ebors.

Potential chinks? Difficult to find in reality. He stays and he appears to be versatile in terms of ground conditions.

Experience

The biggest potential weakness is that he lacks experience. That is the other side of the ‘potential’ coin.

He has never run in a race as competitive as today’s race will be, he has never faced 21 rivals before.

Also, he has never run at York. There is no reason why he won’t be able to operate on the Knavesmire, it’s just that some horses aren’t able.

Mainly though, from a betting perspective, his primary weakness is that he is short in a race in which there are cases to be made for many.

Real Dream is similarly unexposed, and Absurde is interesting, having his fourth run for Willie Mullins and with Frankie Dettori booked.

Yashin is also interesting, gallant winner of the Saval Beg Stakes on his penultimate run, as is Live Your Dream, who did so well to finish as close as he did in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot given how the race was run, before going to Newmarket last time and winning a competitive handicap over today’s distance.

Most interesting

But at the prices, Scriptwriter is the most interesting. The Churchill gelding had the precocity to win as a two-year-old for Aidan O’Brien, and he won his first two races over hurdles last year as a three-year-old for Milton Harris, staying on strongly up the hill in the second of them to win the Grade 2 juveniles’ hurdle at Cheltenham’s November meeting last year.

His run in the Copper Horse Handicap at Royal Ascot – the race in which Absurde chased his stable companion Vauban home – can be marked up at least a little too.

He was further back than ideal early on off a moderate pace, he did well to get as close as he did, racing wide early on from his high draw in a race in which four of the first five home were drawn 10 or lower.

Also, that was his first run since he finished fifth behind Zenta in the Grade 1 juveniles’ hurdle at Aintree’s Grand National meeting in April.

He was entitled to step forward from that run, and he duly did last time at York, over the Ebor course and distance, when he went down by just a head to Hamish in the Group 3 John Smith’s Silver Cup.

That was a big run. It looked like he had Hamish in trouble when he hit the front at the furlong pole, and there was a lot to like about the manner in which he battled back after Hamish headed him.

Hamish is a high-class stayer, as he proved again since in winning the Glorious Stakes at Goodwood by four lengths. He has a rating of 117, and Scriptwriter was getting just 3lb from him when he went down by a head to him last time. He gets to race today off a mark of 106.

More than that though, that was Scriptwriter’s best run ever on the flat, so he goes into today’s race on a high. And the fact that it was at York, on his first run at York, over the Ebor course and distance, is a nice bonus in the context of today’s race.

He does have the Melbourne Cup on his radar reportedly, but you have to think that his trainer will have him primed for today. He is only four and he has run just six times on the flat, so he still has the potential to improve.

Melrose Handicap

The Melrose Handicap is also run over the Ebor course and distance, and Fox Journey could be the answer to that. Sir Michael Stoute’s horse was an impressive winner of a 12-furlong handicap at Newbury on his penultimate run off a mark of 85.

He travelled like the most likely winner from a long way out that day, and he stayed on well on the far side, racing on his own, probably not on the fastest part of the track, to get home by three quarters of a length.

That race is working out well. Runner-up Sovereign Spirit put up a nice performance in the Shergar Cup Classic last time, doing well to get as close as he did from the rear in a race in which the prominent racers were advantaged, and third-placed Dasho Lennie won a handicap at Ripon next time.

Fox Journey himself went to Goodwood last time and, racing off a handicap rating of 90, finished only third behind The Goat. But the ground was really attritional that day, The Goat obviously handled it well, whereas Fox Journey didn’t. It is unlikely that there will be 15 and a half lengths between them today.

The Goat was raised by 12lb for that performance, which may leave him vulnerable, given the degree to which the winning distances may have been accentuated at Goodwood last time. Fox Journey meets him on 12lb better terms, and that gives him a big chance of exacting his revenge.

From the family of Alexandrova, and a half-brother to Forza Orta, who won the good two-mile handicap at York on Wednesday, the Roaring Lion colt could improve again now for the step up to a mile and six furlongs.

He has a nice progressive profile anyway, he is the type of slow-maturing middle-distance horse with whom his trainer excels, and he could run a big race today.

Fox Journey, 2.25 York, 12/1 (generally), 1 point win

Scriptwriter, 3.35 York, 14/1 (generally), 1 point each-way