THERE has been a lot of talk this week about who is well treated following the publishing of the Grand National weights but it’s likely to be largely immaterial with still six weeks to go to the race.
Over half the field will run between now and then, thus impacting their official rating (not National assessment) to go up or down. It’s a narrative not often given much light when it comes to the Grand National, the richest and most prestigious handicap in National Hunt racing, but one of the most inaccurate by the time of the off.
Recent winners highlight this. Corach Rambler was 10lb well in last year, Tiger Roll was 8lb well in and 2lb well in for his two victories and even Minella Times was 4lb in without having run between the publishing of the weights and the National - the handicapper reassessed the form of his second at the Dublin Racing Festival after it was boosted by the runs of horses who had finished in behind Henry de Bromhead’s gelding.
The advice - pay close attention to any National runner that runs between now and the race. The handicaps at Cheltenham are an obvious place to look, but today’s Bobbyjo Chase (3.50) is a fine option for National hopefuls, and it’s no surprise that all four lining up have National entries.
The talking horse this week has been Vanillier and consequently he is the most interesting horse today. Gavin Cromwell used the Bobbyjo as a springboard to the National for this grey last year and he ended up finding only the well-treated Corach Rambler too good on the day.
Most trainers react indifferently when asked about marks for the National but Cromwell seemed notably positive about a rating of 151. He will be significantly more positive about that assessment should his nine-year-old win or perform with credit today.
Nice run
Speaking to The Irish Field yesterday, the Meath trainer said: “A nice run is really all we’re after. We’re just hoping that he is going to start showing something like he did this time last year. He’s a spring horse, we’re going back up in trip and hopefully he will run well.
“This race was always the plan - the weights are out and it gives us lots of time to get ready then for the National so it was an obvious race for him. We’re happy enough with him and we’ll know a bit more tomorrow.”
Vying for favouritism in the Bobbyjo yesterday evening were I Am Maximus and Minella Crooner, representing Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott. The same criteria applies to both these second season chasers, who may have been seen as inexperienced side for a National 10 years ago, but with the fences softened up and the race now cut to 34 runners, the race has taken on the guise of a standard top class handicap, hence the bigger advantage of improving your rating now after the weights have been published.
A big performance from any of the trio will likely see a big shake up to the National betting.
SHARING OPTIONS: