Ascot Saturday

1:30 Peroni Nastro Azzurro Handicap 1m 3f 211y

Sir Rumi did me a good turn when landing the Great Metropolitan at Epsom last time, but he came in for a perfectly executed ride from William Buick to score there, and I’m inclined to be against him with the handicapper having taken action.

In truth, there aren’t many who could be described as copper-bottomed on the ground aside from Sir Rumi, with Rhythmic Intent once seeming a mudlark, but not placed on soft or deeper ground in the last couple of years, and Nathaniel Greene well beaten in the November Handicap despite a win on soft earlier last season.

One who is unproven on the surface but likely to relish it is Harry Fry’s High Fibre, who is the least exposed in the line-up, and easily the most interesting, assuming he retains all his ability after a 13-month hiatus.

A winner of a Newmarket nursery over nine furlongs on his final two-year-old outing, High Fibre would have followed up at the same track last spring but for being sent for home too soon, which saw him idle and get caught right on the line.

That was his final start for Ralph Beckett, but he looked sure to go on to better things, and Fry has an excellent record with bringing his horses back from a break, with Metier returning from an eight-month absence when winning the November Handicap last year, and the stable has an excellent strike rate with its hurdlers when fresh.

High Fibre shaped with huge promise (poorly ridden, finished best of all) on his only start on a soft surface to date, and remains the type to win a decent handicap or two for new connections.

2:05 Peroni Nastro Azzurro EBF Fillies’ Handicap 1m

Harry Eustace is a trainer I have a lot of time for, and it’s hard to fathom why his Belhaven isn’t shorter in the betting for this fillies’ handicap.

The trainer has a 30% strike-rate with his turf runners this season, and Belhaven looked to have plenty to spare when beating the reliable Sly Madam by three and a half lengths at Nottingham, and that margin could have been doubled had Pierre-Louis Jamin not eased his mount considerably in the latter stages.

That took her career record after a recent run to 11011, improving to 1111 on good or softer ground.

Belhaven was beaten over course and distance last July, but got involved in some scrimmaging in the early stages that day, and was reported to have lost a shoe. The ground was arguably too quick that day, too, and the run is best forgiven, as is her reappearance at Redcar where she was continually denied a run and finished with running left despite finishing last.

She looks perfectly well treated despite a 7lb rise for her Nottingham win, and can prove the point by following up.

2:40 Peroni Nastro Azzurro Victoria Cup 7f

High draws tend to dominate in big fields here, and stalls 26, 27 and 28 filled the first three spots in the Victoria Cup a year ago. The field is a little smaller this time, but there are still 23 runners, and I’ve no desire to overthink things, particularly as the high draws also seem to have the best of the pace.

I’d not fancy anything to make all the running here given a well-run race on the straight track at Ascot tends to suit those ridden with more patience, but the likes of Tylos and Biggles should ensure there is a solid pace to aim at on the near side, and that should enable the hold-up horses drawn high to get a nice tow into things.

My idea of the winner is Perotto, who has switched from Marcus Tregoning to Roger Varian, and is well treated on his three-year-old form, which included an impressive win in the Britannia Handicap at the Royal Meeting here.

He has a lot of speed in his pedigree, winning over sprint trips as a juvenile, and I was surprised that his previous trainer tried him several times over longer trips, as I’ve long thought a well-run seven-furlongs could be ideal, at least on a stiff track.

When he won the Britannia, he weaved through to lead over a furlong out but was all out to cling on, and that came on the back of a win over this trip at Goodwood, when he again finished with a flourish to win. He was largely kept to quick turf by Tregoning, but ran well on heavy ground as a juvenile, and should have no trouble with conditions.

He’s finally dropped below the mark he won off in the Britannia, and his trainer is adept at readying one off a break; in the past 24 months, Varian has had 99 handicap runners coming off a break of two months or longer, with 26 winning, and over 50% making the places.

3:15 Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle 1m 7f 144y

Homme Public looks a big price in the Swinton, despite his welter burden, with the key to him being the trip. He’s won four and been placed twice in eight starts at two miles (only poor run in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham as a juvenile) and seems much happier at this trip than he does further, so his last few efforts at around two and a half miles should be improved on now he’s back at the minimum trip today.

A strong traveller, he is best on good ground, and missed a similar opportunity at Aintree when the going went against him, only to rock up over the wrong trip at Cheltenham a few days later, and he typically failed to see things out that day.

The strong pace and big field are both positives, and even if he does find something better handicapped, he seems sure to run to his best in the conditions, and it will be disappointing if he can’t run into a place at a big price.

High Fibre 1:30 Ascot – 2pts win @ 11/2 (general)

Belhaven 2:05 Ascot – 1pt win @ 13/2 (general)

Perotto 2:40 Ascot – 1.5pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365 6 places, 12/1 general)

Homme Public 3:15 Haydock – 1pt e/w 28/1 (general – 5 places)