12:20 Jenningsbet Festival Handicap 6f

Raatea was an impressive winner of this corresponding race 12 months ago, and Julie Camacho’s six-year-old looked at least as good as ever when winning a televised handicap at Haydock last time when equipped with cheekpieces for the first time.

Julie’s partner and assistant Steve Brown mentioned after that win that Raatea was capable of even better but has his own ideas, and it seems to me that the headgear helped him to produce that excellent effort. He stays a bit beyond six furlongs, so this stiff test is up his street, and the handicapper has given him a chance by raising him only 3lb for Haydock and he’s sure to remain competitive.

12:55 Jenningsbet Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) 6f

Mount Athos is an intriguing runner cutting back to six furlongs after a breathing operation, and he has shown the speed over seven to believe that he could make up into a high-class sprinter, with a July Cup entry taking the eye. I was tempted by him, but preference at the likely odds is for Tiber Flow.

Tiber Flow has run pretty well this season, finishing a close fourth to Garrus in the Abernant Stakes before chasing home the ill-fated Creative Force at Haydock, but my gut feeling is that he is simply a better horse on an artificial surface, with his only defeat in four runs on Tapeta coming when beaten a short-head by El Caballo in the 3-Y-O Final on All-Weather Championships day last year.

He was four lengths clear of Annaf then, and with that colt finishing an excellent third in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot, the form looks all the better.

In my view Tiber Flow didn’t really run to the same level on turf after that, despite winning a listed race at Newbury. The return to the all-weather is therefore a positive, and I expect him to build markedly on his recent efforts.

1:30 Jenningsbet Northumberland Vase Handicap 2m 56y

The pair to concentrate on here are Appier and Citizen General who were first and second in a mile and a half handicap at Lingfield four weeks ago.

That was the second time that Appier had beaten Ed Dunlop’s charge this term, but a 5lb turnaround makes it very close between the pair, with the odds pushing me in the direction of the progressive Citizen General.

Neither of the pair are proven over two miles, but races over this trip at Newcastle are not often run at a solid gallop, and tactical speed is often as important as out-and-out stamina.

Citizen General does shape as if a mile and a half is a minimum for him, and he was doing his best work late having conceded first run at Lingfield. He should relish this test, and with form figures after a fairly recent run of 13211212 in the past year, it’s clear that he’s got a positive profile for handicaps.

For the record, Appier has a similar profile, winning a remarkable seven of 13 handicap starts since last May, and improving gradually to stay ahead of the assessor. Both geldings are officially 2lb well-in for this early closing contest.

2:05 Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap) 2m 56y

One feature of this contest, since switching from turf to Tapeta, is that the draw bias has been turned on its head, with those drawn wide now advantaged, and that fact hasn’t really filtered through to the prices.

In seven runnings on the all-weather track, no horse has been placed from stalls 1 or 2, and the five lowest stalls have been responsible for just one of the 28 available places.

I would rule all of those drawn five or lower out of calculations, and while the bias doesn’t increase in linear fashion, there is no concern with backing something drawn very wide.

The horse who most catches my eye is Post Impressionist, who is totally unexposed beyond at a mile and a half.

By Teofilo and a 260,000gns yearling, he was an impressive winner of a warm three-year-old handicap at York when last seen.

An absence is no concern for one trained by William Haggas, and while he’s not won on this surface, a second to Eldar Eldarov on his only visit to the track reads extremely well now, particularly as he finished in from of four next-time-out winners in that red-hot novice event.

Post Impressionist was a big gamble at Royal Ascot last year, but flopped, and only really got his form back in the autumn.

As a result, he carries what looks a very workable handicap mark into his four-year-old season, and he looks sure to win a big pot this term.

From stall 19, some will be put off by his berth, but it’s of no concern to me, and he looks a smashing bet.

1:15 Cavani Menswear

Sartorial Sprint Fred Archer Stakes (Listed) 1m 4f

On the theme of William Haggas break-returners, I’m confused to see that Al Aasy is a 5/2 shot for the Fred Archer with New London even-money favourite. I’d have made the pair the other way around, and Al Aasy has won both starts after a lengthy break in recent seasons.

He has been called a few names because he tends to do all his racing on the bridle, but his only crime is fooling some pundits into believing he was a Group 1 horse given how well he won lesser races.

He’s clearly not quite as good as he seemed when cruising to victory in a pair of Group 3 contests at Newbury in 2021, but he’s certainly good enough to win this run-of-the-mill listed contest, with his trainer sure to have him cherry-ripe despite a long absence.

Raatea 12:20 Newcastle – 1pt win @ 11/4 (general)

Tiber Flow 12:55 Newcastle – 1pt win @ 7/2 (general)

Citizen General 1:30 Newcastle – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (general – Sky Bet 5 places)

Post Impressionist 2:05 Newcastle – 1.5pts e/w @ 13/2 (Bet365, 6/1 general – 6 places)

Al Aasy 1:15 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair, 9/4 general)