Ascot Saturday

1:50 Howden Handicap Chase 2m 2f 175y

Nigel Twiston-Davies is enjoying a fine autumn, and he can strike here with Guy, who may well have won here last time but for making his only significant error at the penultimate fence, just as he was launching his challenge. The six-year-old is growing nicely into his frame and is beginning to blossom as a result. He’s been nudged up to a mark of 130 by the handicapper for his latest effort, but he is still progressing over fences, and appeals as the best handicapped horse in this field.

2:25 Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m 97y

Lots of question marks over the market leaders in the Long Walk, with Emma Lavelle trying a tongue-tie on Paisley Park after he had a spin in cheekpieces at Newbury, but he didn’t offer much fight when headed there in a race where he had the run of things, and I’m not sure the fire is in his belly any more, as the old Paisley Park was a real battler. Thomas Darby looked impressive in winning the Newbury contest, but I think there is a strong element in his win of the others falling in a bit of a hole in front of him. He’s never been the sort to string good efforts together, and could easily blow out.

Thyme Hill has a great chance on his overall form, but it’s hard to forget how poorly he ran at Auteuil in the Grand Prix D’Automne.

That was the first time he’s been beaten by more than a length and a half, and it’s certainly forgivable in isolation, but he’s not for me at 7/4 or thereabouts. Champ cannot possibly be backed if Nicky Henderson is right about him not being ready to run over fences, although rumour has it that he had a schooling fall at home, which might explain this switch to hurdling.

Ronald Pump looks solid given the questions over others, and I’ve certainly got no reason to oppose him, but a couple of firms are betting four places despite the absence of Buzz, and that makes an each-way play very attractive. Third Wind was far from disgraced when fifth in this last season on his first attempt at the level, and he improved when winning the Rendlesham Hurdle at Haydock, where he beat Lisnagar Oscar and On The Blind Side, albeit getting weight.

He can be forgiven a poor run at Aintree, and while he needs to improve a little on ratings, he has a decent turn of foot for a stayer, and this race promises to become tactical, which won’t bother him. It’s asking a lot for him to win, but he should sneak into the frame at a big price.

3:00 Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed) 2m 7f 180y

For a race which features Arkle on its roll of honour when run as the SGB, I must say the field for the Silver Cup is rather disappointing, and many of those high in the handicap have a bit to prove. Cloth Cap would be a popular winner, and is likely to have too much raw pace for Step Back and Ornua, meaning he might get his own way in front.

The handicapper has given him a chance, but I still feel he was harshly treated for winning a tactical contest at Kelso last year, and he’s still just too high in the handicap for my liking.

Regal Encore loves this race, but he’s a bit long in the tooth now to be defying his current mark, Caribean Boy hasn’t built on a promising reappearance last season, and Grand Sancy looks an unlikely stayer. I’m struggling for solid options, but am willing to take a chance on the unexposed Annsam.

Representing the same connections as last week’s big Cheltenham winner Coole Cody, Annsam also mixes chasing with the occasional hurdles outing, and he shaped with promise when third of 11 to Earlofthecotswolds in a handicap hurdle at Newbury last time.

He’s a better chaser, and is an enthusiastic front runner who might be the one to spoil Cloth Cap’s rhythm. He’s not tried three miles since falling on his chasing debut, but his dam stayed well, and he should stay the trip as long as he doesn’t race too freely, or get involved in a destructive duel up front.

3:35 Betfair Exchange Trophy 1m 7f 152y

Samarrive impressed with the way he pulled away from the last at Sandown last time, foiling my bet on runner-up Zambezi Fix, and that ability to quicken twice in a race is a sure sign of class. He handles soft and good ground, and is sure to progress further given the impression he left at Sandown.

His one disappointment came at Cheltenham, but he had looked a good prospect when scoring at Kempton prior to that, and perhaps the key to him is racing right-handed.

Of the others, Llandinabo Lad ran really well when second to My Drogo in the Kennel Gate at this meeting 12 months ago, and looks like he’s been laid out for this, with a good second at Bangor on his return showing that he’s trained on well. He looks overpriced, although I’ve heard his name whispered a few times this week, and I think he may be the plunge horse of the race as a result.

Haydock Saturday

2:40 Virgin Bet Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase 3m 1f 125y

Remastered is very much the one to beat in the Tommy Whittle, racing off the same mark as when falling when going every bit as well as the winner in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury. I’d not field against him, but again there may be a bit of each-way value in one of the outsiders. Crixus’s Escape was ostensibly well-beaten on his return at Ayr, but he travelled well for a long way there, only to burst a blood vessel, which saw him weaken late.

That tendency to bleed results in an inconsistent profile, but he’s become well-handicapped, and if the talented Gill Boanas has managed to get him back to full health, he’s capable of getting involved. Conditions are ideal for him, and while there is clearly a degree of risk in backing him, that is compensated for by the big price.

Recommended

Third Wind 2:25 Ascot - 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Hills, 28/1 SkyBet - 4 places)

Annsam 3:00 Ascot - 1pt win @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Crixus’s Escape 2:40 Haydock - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (general)