ONE of the conundrums to face jumps punters every autumn is working out when the Venetia Williams-trained chasers will be ready to do themselves justice, with the King’s Caple handler in no rush to get her jumpers back on the track compared to many of her contemporaries.

Indeed, it sometimes seems like Venetia hasn’t heard of the months of May through September, so few are the sightings of the glamorous trainer on British racecourses in that period.

The good news for her acolytes is that Ms Williams has unearthed a runner or two in recent days, and the first signs are very positive, with Eceparti defying a six-month absence to win a handicap chase at Chepstow by 29 lengths on Wednesday.

Her other runner on the card, Georges Saint failed to win, but was very much out of his paygrade and went into the notebook having been given quite a tender ride in the circumstances.

Next three months

I’m pretty sure that backing all of the yard’s chasers in handicaps over the next three months will see punters wash their faces as a worst-case scenario, with November typically the best month of the year to back her returners.

Punters backing all handicap chasers from the stable returning from 60+ days off the track in November would be over £1,700 ahead since 2009 (source geegeez.co.uk), and the profits increase the longer the absence, with those off for between four months and a year responsible for the lion’s share of profits.

It will massively reduce the number of qualifiers, but backing handicap chasers from the Williams stable on the back of an absence combined with wind surgery has provided 14 winners from just 35 runners since such procedures had to be declared in 2018.

That list of winners includes 2021 Ladbrokes Trophy winner Cloudy Glen, but even ignoring that 33/1 success, the system is still very lucrative, and is likely to continue to be.

IT’S easy to get distracted by the fact that the Old Roan Chase was spoiled in large part due to the loss of the fences in the straight, in what is becoming a remarkably regular occurrence at Aintree in the autumn.

Instead, it’s best to focus on what we can glean from the race, and while Jetoile deserves plenty of credit for winning, and might have done so more decisively with the full quote of fences, the horse I would want to take from the race is Tommy’s Oscar, who travelled and jumped as well as any, but was unsuited by the long run for home from the final turn, seeming to confirm once and for all that he doesn’t really stay two and a half miles.

Including in points, his record over two and a half-mile or further is F56223313, and while a win between the flags suggests he has stamina for further, the fact that it took him eight attempts to score in points paints a rather different picture.

Ann Hamilton’s prolific scorer should have won more than he did last season, but he often ran in handicaps, and two of his defeats came when conceding first run to better-ridden rivals in receipt of lumps of weight.

Like the track

His second to Banbridge at Cheltenham a year ago was a smashing effort, given he was again asked to give the winner a significant start, and while owner Ian Hamilton feels he doesn’t like the track, it would be no surprise to see him back there given the paucity of opportunities for top-class chasers at the trip elsewhere.

The Shloer may come too soon after a tough race at Aintree, or so conventional wisdom dictates, but the hardy Tommy’s Oscar thrives on hard work, and his record under rules when turned out within three weeks of a previous run reads: 11213111151, with the only unplaced effort when switching back to hurdles for the Fighting Fifth Hurdle behind Constitution Hill.

His previous run at Cheltenham came in the 2022 Champion Hurdle so deciding that he doesn’t like the undulations is a little premature.

Prior to his fourth in the Old Roan, Tommy’s Oscar was enormously impressive in the Simply Ned Handicap Chase at Kelso, giving 26lb and a six and a half-length beating to the race-fit Cedar Hill.

His erstwhile stable-companion Nuts Well won the corresponding contest three times, but Tommy’s Oscar probably has more in common with the horse the Kelso race is named after.

Simply Ned was also a multiple winner over hurdles who started life over fences in handicaps before proving himself a Grade 1 performer.

His best days came when winning the same Grade 1 at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting in consecutive years, having been in the frame in the same event on multiple occasions prior to making that Grade breakthrough.

The Hamiltons have a horse of remarkably similar ability based on Timeform ratings at this stage of their respective careers, and when Ian said “I don’t know where the hell we’ll run him” after Kelso, I hope he has since considered the possibility of sending his star to Ireland, where the pickings for 160-rated two milers are far from slim.

Crambo one to follow over timber

ANOTHER horse who really caught my eye at Aintree last Sunday was Fergal O’Brien’s Crambo, who won the two and a half-mile handicap hurdle cheekily from Santos Blue, with rider Connor Brace merely showing his mount the whip in the final 50 yards as he seemed to cruise to a two and a half-length success.

Crambo had also made an indelible impression when landing the EBF Final at Sandown in March, showing great battling qualities to get back up having been headed by runner-up Inneston.

That form looked very good at the time, but has aged like fine wine, with seven of the beaten horses winning next time, and while Crambo was well beaten in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle won by Irish Point on his next start, he was tracking Cool Survivor going well when that gelding crashed out at the third-last flight, hampering the son of Saddler Maker and effectively ending his race.

Crambo was also unplaced in the Challow Hurdle but that race came on just his second start over timber and he lacked the maturity to cope with such a competitive contest.

Next race

He will stay further, and it would appear that his next race will come in the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle at Haydock later this month, where his chance will depend on how the handicapper reads the Aintree contest (as that race was on Sunday, it will be another week before he’s reassessed).

His trainer is playing down his prospects at graded level as he’s twice fallen short, but it’s not hard to find excuses, and he is capable of considerable further progress, with the proviso that he probably needs the ground to be soft or heavy to be at his very best.

I’m hoping the handicapper will judge him by the margin of his Aintree win and not hit him too hard, but a mark of around 140 is unlikely to be his ceiling, and he should be placed to advantage by his clued-up trainer.