Ascot Saturday

1:50 Bateaux London

Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase 2m 7f 180y

The Reynoldstown is an unappealing betting heat, not least as it has been a graveyard for favourites despite attracting an average field of just five this century. In the past nine runnings, only the odds-on Black Corton has justified favouritism, which should give punters pause for thought.

Bold Endeavour is just a token selection; the son of Fame And Glory has won both his starts since joining Nicky Henderson from Laura Morgan and looks a deserving market leader, but he’s not been foot perfect over fences, and while the right-handed track at Ascot ought to suit after he had shown a tendency to jump that way at Doncaster last time, he’s one for the needy and greedy at around 4/6.

Oscar Elite is the other to consider in terms of class, but a tendency to break blood vessels has seen his form take a downward turn since an excellent effort in the Ultima Handicap Chase at last season’s Cheltenham Festival, and he comes with obvious risks for all his price is very tempting.

2:25 LK Bennett Swinley

Handicap Chase 2m 7f 180y

Christian Williams has had a poor season to date, with his monthly tally of winners exceeding one on just one occasion in 2022/23, but it was this time last year when the Welsh trainer hit form at this time last year, and recent signs are that his horses are beginning to refind their form once again.

Cap Du Nord was third in the SkyBet Chase at Doncaster last season before going on to win the Grade 3 Coral Trophy at Kempton, and he is following a fairly similar pattern this season, with a few heavy defeats seeing his mark fall below that he scored off at Kempton, and he showed himself on the way back to his best when runner-up in the latest renewal of the SkyBet Chase late last month.

Raised 2lb for that effort, he now sits on his last winning mark, and it’s interesting than Christian Williams runs him here rather than waiting for the Coral Trophy again in a week’s time.

The 10-year-old is clearly in good heart again and looks the one to be with in an otherwise open contest.

3:00 Ascot Racecourse Supports Box4Kids Handicap Hurdle 2m 3f 58y

There are a couple I fancy against the field in this handicap, where a number of the fancied runners have stamina to prove conclusively at the trip.

Djelo bolted up on his debut for Venetia Williams in a race where the handicapper was forced to pluck a mark from somewhere for a horse who had only run once prior to that race at Exeter, and the number chosen was wrong by some way, as he showed when maintaining the perfect start to his hurdles career.

The son of Montmartre has been beaten on both starts since, but was probably turned out too quickly under a mandatory penalty at Haydock, and was back to form when a good third at Sandown last time despite making an untimely error at the final hurdle when coming with his run.

Given he made much of the running at Exeter, I’d be happy to see a switch to more prominent tactics than were employed at Sandown while I also think that good ground will suit.

There is a lazy assumption that Venetia Williams’s horses are best in deep ground, but Djelo doesn’t shape like a mudlark, and his sire’s best offspring, notably Labaik, Capitaine, and Bigmartre, have all shown their form on a sound surface.

One to consider at a big price is Thibault, who is well suited by this sort of test and has fallen back to a workable mark. He’s missed a couple of engagements of late due to the weather, but has been ticking over on the all-weather, so won’t lack fitness.

Two runs over this course and distance have seen Thibault finish fourth and second in competitive handicaps, with the latter effort coming in this race two years ago when he touched 1.11 in the run having been sent off at an SP of 80/1.

He can run off the same mark here, and looks to retain pretty much all his ability at the age of 10.

3:35 Betfair Ascot Chase (Grade 1) 2m 5f 8y

Fakir D’Oudairies lacks the star appeal of Shishkin, but he is a multiple Grade 1 winner who almost always runs to his mark, as evidenced by a graded chase record at short of three miles which reads 12222211421121, and he can gain a second Ascot Chase win on faster ground than he encountered 12 months ago.

It’s true to say that Fakir D’Oudairies was fortunate to win the Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles last time, but it’s also true that he was rallying strongly when left clear at the last having looked booked for third or fourth early in the straight.

His inability to quicken immediately is his weakness at this level, but he’s been well-placed to maximise his talents, and taking on a weaker English cohort was a wise move a year ago and looks equally shrewd this time.

It’s worth comparing the records of his main rivals to his, with Shishkin’s record at pattern level over fences 111111P3, and Pic D’Orhy’s 4F131P11.

The latter is getting better with experience, but his impressive wins this season have come when able to dominate lesser rivals from the front, and he blew out completely when thrown into a Grade 1 at Aintree last spring, with his usually sound jumping falling apart in a more competitive race.

Jumping in company remains a concern for Pic D’Orhy now back at the top level, whereas Shishkin would have looked a certainty in this race a year ago, but has questions to answer after alarming displays in the Champion Chase and the Tingle Creek on his last two starts. He’s shown his very best form when beating Energumene here last term, but he jumped markedly out to his left in the Tingle Creek, and such tendencies tend to amplified at Ascot, where those adjusting right tend to find themselves continuing in that direction due to track’s unusual topography.

2:05 Betfred Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade 2) 3m 58y

It may pay to tread carefully at Haydock until the state of the ground can be more accurately assessed. At present the going is described as good to soft with rain forecast overnight and into Saturday, but the weather in that region can be very fickle, and I won’t be risking much overnight.

Wakool could represent some value in a Rendlesham, which is a Grade 2 on paper but just a tightly-knit handicap in the flesh. The selection is 4lb better off here than he would be with Green Book in a handicap, but is a much bigger price, and he’s closely matched with the others on the pick of his form over this trip.

His one below-par run this season came over course and distance, but he’s very dependable on the whole, which is a comment that can’t be bandied about too much in this race.

2:40 Betfred Grand National Trial Handicap Chase 3m 4f 97y

While it would be lovely to see Bristol De Mai back to winning ways, the chances are that he will prove vulnerable despite being 5lb lower than when awarded this contest last season.

The pair who appeal most at the prices are Fortescue, who I foolishly napped in the Welsh National without considering how unsuited he might be to the way that race would be run. That poor effort can be forgiven, and it’s worth remembering that he hit form on this day last year when winning the Swinley Chase at Ascot. He’s feared, but marginal preference is for Notachance.

Notachance confirmed himself back to form after a barren spell when a good fourth to subsequent Coral Gold Cup winner Le Milos at Bangor on his return, and was then set aside for the Classic Chase at Warwick, where he finished an excellent third to Iwilldoit and Mr Incredible.

That form looked warm at the time, and has since been franked when fourth home Guetapan Collonges won well at Uttoxeter last weekend.

Notachance has gone up just 2lb to 132 for that run, and given he was rated 146 after winning the Classic Chase in 2020, he would appear to be on a winning mark.

He’s not been over-raced for one of his age, and given he’s been lightly raced this season, I expect him to run much better here than when attempting the race two years ago.

3:18 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Qualifier) 3m 58y

All eyes will be on bottom-weight Hardy Bloke, recently purchased by Darren Yates after an eye-catching effort at the Dublin Racing Festival. I’m concerned that his improved effort last time came with a tongue-tie fitted but he goes without the aid here, and I’m more enamoured with the chances of the progressive The Changing Man.

The Changing Man is bred to be smart being by Walk In The Park out of that smart mare Bitofapuzzle, who was a close third to Glens Melody in the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham a few years ago.

He’s taken time to blossom, but started life in handicaps off a lowly mark, and has not looked back since scoring off 95 at Stratford last May.

He quickly rattled up a hat-trick of wins and although beaten on his last two starts, has shown further improvement in those defeats, with his latest second to Itchy Feet in a Pertemps qualifier at Huntingdon not only a career-best effort, but a run that suggested strongly that he has not finished progressing by some way.

He is already qualified for the final but is too low in the weights to guarantee he’ll make the final cut, so you can be sure he’ll be going for glory here.