Newbury Saturday

1:50 BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) 1m 5f 61y

Arrest has been well backed to bounce back down in grade, and will appreciate every drop of rain that falls, but I can’t help but feel that two runs on quick ground for a horse who seems a mudlark may not have been beneficial to his development, especially in the short term, and he is a short price even on what he’s promised in winning the Chester Vase from a below-par Adelaide River.

Rain isn’t a positive for Kemari who has won his maiden on dead ground but has been kept almost exclusively to good or faster turf since beaten in the Prix Royal Oak as a three-year-old, and Klondike’s heavy ground maiden win is far inferior to the form he’s shown since on quicker ground.

Jack Darcy will definitely appreciate the rain having run so well when second to Hamish in the Glorious Stakes at Goodwood, and he looks the value here with conditions in his favour, for all he’s more of an each-way proposition given a modest strike-rate.

He’s viewed as a Melbourne Cup horse by his connections and ought to appreciate the extra yardage here having been racing over a mile and a half.

2:25 Highclere Castle Gin

Handicap 5f 34y

I’ve been stung once too often by Whenthedealinsdone, and the fact that headgear is being tried in a haphazard fashion with him suggests that Roger Teal is also losing patience.

He again has his conditions, but he’ll be winning without my money on him if he does consent to put his best foot forward.

Of more appeal, assuming he takes his place, is Libra Tiger, who was a good winner on soft ground at Sandown on his penultimate start and did not have the race run to suit in a Racing League handicap at Windsor on Thursday.

Saffie Osborne ensured he did not endure a hard race there, and he will be seen to better effect on this stiffer track, particularly with plenty of ease underfoot to put the emphasis on stamina at the extended five-furlong trip.

3:00 Heart Bingo Summer

Sizzler Handicap 7f

My two against the field here are Lyndon B and Hodler, with both horses overpriced in view of their best form, and while really soft ground would see me switch allegiance, Lyndon B appears to have a solid each-way case in a race that ought to be run to suit. Runner-up in a really competitive course and distance handicap on good ground last autumn, Lyndon B has run respectably this term despite not having an ideal set-up, and was left poorly placed at Newmarket last time after a slow start.

Lyndon B has a good record in big-field handicaps (lifetime record at 6f/7f in fields of 16+ reads 43012) having won over this trip at the Qatar Goodwood Festival last year, and he’s effective on good to soft ground for all he wouldn’t want it any deeper than that.

He tends to do his best work late and is only 3lb higher than for his latest win having been placed off higher marks since.

As mentioned, Hodler would become the selection if the going was soft or worse, and his handicap record on soft or heavy is 121, making his position as complete outsider in this field look a false one. The trainer and jockey teamed up for an 18/1 winner at Kempton on Wednesday.

3:35 BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) 7f

Once again, rain threatens to change the complexion of this contest, with market leaders Jumby and Chindit needing good or quicker to show their best, but likely to be risked due to the lack of opportunities for them.

The ground is no concern to Pogo, but Newbury isn’t the best track for a horse with his run-style, and he may prove vulnerable late in the day. Misty Greydoesn’t have much to find with the market leaders and is as big as 33/1 in a place. He’s definitely a bet at that price, having shaped better than the result in a Racing League Handicap at Chepstow last week.

Beaten less than a length and a half in the City Plate Stakes at Chester on his penultimate start, Misty Grey wouldn’t be far away with a repeat of that effort, and he should get a nice tow into the race from Pogo.

The other to appeal at big odds is the Spanish runner Rodaballo, whose two and a half lengths sixth of nine to Ghaly in a mile handicap at Ascot three weeks ago came on his first run since March.

A winner on soft ground at Madrid last back-end, he’s got ideal conditions and should strip fitter for his latest outing.

2:40 William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap 6f

The best concentration of pace in the two sprint handicaps at Ripon appears to be in the centre-to-low stalls, and while it’s possible that Impeller could make a bold bid on the stands’ rail, preference is for Cooperation who looked to have a decent race in him when fourth at Haydock in June when drawn away from the trio who beat him.

He was off for seven weeks after that, and hasn’t been in the same form on either start since, but he shaped up pretty well before fading late in the Stewards’ Sprint at Goodwood last time, and will handle the likely soft ground better than most.

An impressive winner on testing ground at Thirsk in May despite starting slowly, he finds himself just 2lb higher now, and if he doesn’t blow the start, has a good chance of landing a nice pot.

3:15 William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap 6f

It usually pays to concentrate on Ripon form when looking at this race, as the sprint track is a unique test with the ridge and furrow catching out the unwary.

Doing that, and also filtering form through the prism of softish ground is revealing, with Bay Breeze jumping off the page. A lifetime record at Ripon reading 111351 is encouraging enough, but he also has a soft-ground record on undulating tracks which reads 41142121, and is unbeaten in three runs at Ripon when the going has been softer than good.

With pace up the centre and towards the far rail, his draw in five looks ideal, and he appears an excellent bet at the prices given what remains a largely progressive profile.

Lyndon B 3:00 Newbury – 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (SkyBet - 5 places)

Cooperation 2:40 Ripon – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Paddy Power – 6 places, 12/1 general)

Bay Breeze 3:15 Ripon – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365, Hills, Betfair – 6 places)

Misty Grey 3:35 Newbury – 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 (Bet365)

Rodaballo 3:35 Newbury – 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 (SkyBet 4 places)