Haydock Saturday

2:05 Bet365 Handicap 1m 6f

What will the weather do at Haydock? It’s the most taxing question in racing, and I’ve looked at several forecasts which suggest that the going will either be heavy, bone hard, or something in between, which is most helpful.

I have a feeling that the heaviest rain will come after the televised races, and that’s how I’ll proceed, but all the work will be in vain if it comes down in torrents.

Rathgar coped well enough with fast ground when running well against a pace bias at York in the race won by Chesspiece, but he failed to repeat the form at Doncaster last time, last of eight behind both Struth and Midnight Lion.

He appears held by that pair with the handicapper failing to cut him any slack, but my view is that he simply didn’t want to let himself down on the ground on Town Moor, and I’m a believer that some horses who would prefer some give will give their running once on ground which is too quick, but won’t a second time.

He’ll obviously need a little rain to fall, but good ground should be fine, and he’s overpriced if you ignore his latest run, having looked both game and progressive prior to that blip.

2:40 Bet365 Lancashire Oaks (Group 2) 1m 3f 175y

Maureen Haggas described Sea Silk Road as a ‘butterball’ as a three-year-old, and suggested prior to her emotional win in the Lester Piggott Stakes over course and distance last time that she was finally beginning to look like a racehorse, which the filly then endorsed by beating Nachtrose, with Time Lock well held in fourth.

She almost certainly needs top of the ground, whereas Time Lock is a heavy-topped filly who did not let herself down in that race. If it doesn’t rain, or only a little, I’d be surprised if the form can be turned around, but if the word soft appears in the going, then it could be an entirely different story, for all I’m beginning to think Time Lock is a little soft herself.

3:15 Bet365 Old Newton Cup Handicap 1m 3f 175y

Alright Sunshine will be Keith Dalgleish’s final runner before he takes a break from racing, and I can’t help wondering whether the eight-year-old has been aimed at this with a view to sending the trainer out on a high. He needed the run when well held at Royal Ascot, and is just 1lb higher than when winning the Ripon Bell-Ringer last summer.

This is tougher on paper, but those drawn in double-figures are done no favours by the draw, with almost all of them looking to drop in and hope they go too fast in front. I doubt that will happen, however, as the likeliest leader is Cumulonimbus, and while he has made all to win his last two starts, he’s been able to control the pace both times, rather that string his rivals out by going off hard.

If he does the same again, that will suit those that can be ridden handy, and Alright Sunshine is drawn to slot in immediately behind Cumulonimbus from the stall immediately outside him. That could convey a tactical advantage, and he ought to outrun his lengthy odds as a result. As for fairytales, who knows?

Sandown Saturday

1:50 Coral Charge (Group 3) 5f 10y

Five of the runners in the field are rated between 108 and 110 by the BHA handicapper, and this has an open look at first glance. Top-rated runner is Tiber Flow, but his very best efforts have come on Tapeta and he is penalised for winning the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle.

Annaf ran a blinder in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot, but isn’t sure to get the strong pace he needs, and has been handed a horror draw in stall 11. Diligent Harry could get an uncontested lead, but has done almost all his racing at six furlongs, so it may not be quite that straightforward for him.

Marshman is just about the pick with Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle, but he was just half a length in front of Raasel in the King’s Stand, and the latter has the benefit of being proven over course and distance, having won the latest running of this contest from a similar draw. Mick Appleby has his horses in better order than in the spring, and Raasel should get the run of the race assuming Diligent Harry goes forward from the neighbouring stall.

2:25 Coral Challenge (Handicap) 1m

Maysong has a course record reading 211, while Ouzo is fairly treated on the form of his third to Sinjaari in this race 12 months ago, but I’m taking a chance on Sceptic to overcome a wide draw after his improved effort to score at Goodwood last month. Andrew Balding was quite quiet in June, but his form figures for July read 11562413011212193524343173 (8/26), improving to 154130111231 (6/11) in handicaps only, and his horses simply must be backed in such races at present.

Sceptic has had just two runs in handicaps, finishing just behind subsequent winner Saxon King when fourth in a big field at York, and improving again when winning a six-runner handicap at Goodwood last time by two and a quarter lengths from Nails Murphy.

He was strong at the finish there, and is clearly suited by a stiff mile on good or quicker ground, which he will surely get here.

Stall 14 of 15 is wider than ideal, but the bias at Sandown is towards the middle over a mile, and I’d rather be wide than drawn low with a hold-up handicapper here.

3:00 Coral Distaff (Listed Race) (Fillies) 1m

Stenton Glider can be forgiven her effort in the 1000 Guineas, which came soon enough after a slog in the Fred Darling, and it’s notable that the trio who dominated at Newbury all recoiled from that hard race, whereas Soul Sister, looked after when beaten and last to finish, repaid the kindness to win the Musidora and Oaks.

Since Newmarket, Stenton Glider has shown she was worthy of her Newbury rating with an excellent second in the German 1000 Guineas, where she kept on strongly to chase home the well-ridden Habana, with Dream Of Love two and a quarter lengths behind her having had a similar run through.

That filly ran well to finish in front of several of these in the Sandringham at Royal Ascot despite conceding weight and meeting trouble (as plenty did in that contest).

Given Stenton Glider comes out a 7lb better filly on German Guineas form, she looks a really solid bet to beat officially inferior rivals here, and the Dusseldorf form wasn’t just franked by Dream Of Love, but also by fourth-placed Empore, who won the Preis Der Diana trial on her next start. An inherent unwillingness to analyse ‘foreign’ form will ensure she starts a point or two bigger than she ought to here, and she looks the best bet on the card.

3:40 Coral-Eclipse (Group 1) 1m 1f 209y

It’s not certain how the Eclipse will play out tactically, with the strong possibility of a bit of cat-and-mouse action between William Buick on Emily Upjohn and Ryan Moore aboard Paddington.

The latter impressed with how well he won the St James’s Palace Stakes, and the quick return to the track strongly suggests that he’s thrived since returning home from Ascot.

That said, betting based on the vibes emanating from Ballydoyle is best left to those who are closer to the yard than I am, and this looks a race to enjoy rather than one to invest heavily in, as I have no negatives to offer for Emily Upjohn other than the enforced change of rider, which shouldn’t make much difference.

Raasel 1:50 Sandown – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Hills, BetFred – 4 places)

Sceptic 2:25 Sandown – 1pt win @ 9/1 (Bet365, 8/1 general)

Stenton Glider 3:00 Sandown – 3pts win @ 3/1 (Bet365, 11/4 general)