Doncaster Saturday
1.50 SBK Cammidge Trophy Stakes (Listed) 6f 2yds
The state of the going will be crucial for those contemplating a bet at Doncaster, and it’s slightly confusing to hear that the going hasn’t changed much since the start of the week despite a largely warm and dry few days, with soft still appearing in the description.
It’s possible that heavy dews are ensuring that the turf is drying more slowly than expected, but I’m keen to watch a race or two before committing myself too heavily.
There is little doubt that the horse to beat in the Cammidge Trophy is Garrus, who is the highest-rated runner in the race, is capable of smart form on fast and slow turf, is unpenalised for a Group 3 win last season, goes well fresh, and hails from a yard with an 11/34 record this year.
Charlie Hills tends to have his returning runners fitter than most at this time of the year, and backing all the stable’s runners blind after a break of five months or more would have returned a profit at SP of £686 to £10 stakes. That also works in euros.
2.25 SBK Spring Mile Handicap 1m
A poor turnout for the Spring Mile, with the need for big-race consolations sure to come under the microscope in light of dwindling entries in recent years.
My idea of the bet here when I hoped we would have a full field was Heather Main’s Mostawaa, who is 5lb lower in the weights than when placed in this race last year. He lost his form towards the back end of 2021, but ran an encouraging race on his return at Kempton last month, and looks to have been prepared with this race in mind.
Selection
The selection would look the pick of the weights on last spring’s form, so appeals for each-way purposes, for all the likes of General Lee and Empirestateofmind have more scope for improvements as four-year-olds who progressed well in the latter half of last season.
Utilising Mostawaa under one of that pair in exactas would be a wav to boost returns, but the simple each-way play will suffice.
3.00 SBK Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed) 1m
This doesn’t appeal as a betting race, as I’m not mad about backing horses at odds on based on previous seasons’ form.
Chindit is the clear pick, and was very consistent in 2021, when usually butting heads with the best at around this trip, so deserves to be favourite, but it’s not quite that simple.
He should do well this year, especially with his sights lowered slightly, and this looks a good jumping off point for him.
Main rivals
On the other hand, his two main rivals are capable of improvement at a mile, with Boosala crying out for further having finished strongly but too late over Newcastle’s seven furlongs on his final 2021 start.
Royal Champion has not been seen since disappointing in the Dante at York, but he looked in need of a drop in trip after failing to last home in either of his three-year-old outings. That pair have something to find, but are in excellent hands, and marked progress cannot easily be dismissed.
3.35 SBK Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) 1m
The Lincoln used to be a great race for digging through multiple form lines, working out which horses would handle conditions, and be fit after a spell on the sidelines, etc., but all that has changed, and in recent years picking the winner has been largely akin to working out which horses might be running in group company in a month or two.
Iron grip
The game’s biggest players are able to hold on to late maturing talent, and the Al Maktoum family have had an iron grip in recent years, with the main question has been which colours the winner would carry.
It’s much the same in 2022, with the best chances seeming to belong to Goldolphin, Shadwell Estate and Sheikh Ahmed, who supply the three shortest priced runners.
Of those, the Shadwell runner Mujtaba makes most appeal having won well on his only handicap start, which also came over a straight mile, at Redcar in October, where he scored by two and a quarter lengths from Empirestateofmind.
A big run from the latter in the Spring Mile would be a boost, but Mujtaba – who didn’t make his debut until late-August – looks open to any amount of improvement, and has already been compared to 2018 winner Addeybb by William Haggas.
Low draw
Normally a low draw would be a concern, and Mujtaba is drawn in stall two, but he has Irish Admiral, Saleymm and Johan for company, and that quartet ought to help each other through the race, which negates any draw concerns. Those drawn high are relying on the inconsistent Marie’s Diamond to tow them into the race, and that scenario could work for or against them, depending on what sort of form Roger Fell’s charge is in.
Kelso Saturday
1.35 Go North Cab On Target Handicap Hurdle (Series Final) 2m 4f 189yds
Goodtimes Badtimes has developed a reputation of one who finds little for pressure, but that may be a little harsh, and his form has an improving look to it despite just the one win this season.
Breathing problems
He has had wind surgery in the past, and his tendency to carry his head high and to one side under pressure looks typical of a horse who has had breathing problems.
He has travelled best on his last two starts, and while unable to put the race to bed here or at Newcastle, he was beaten by a subsequent winner at the latter track two starts back, and pulled well clear of the others when second to Lissen To The Lady here last time.
His last three efforts have come in cheekpieces, which seem to have helped him, while he’s also progressing in terms of his time figures, and it’s hard to imagine many of these being able to travel better than him. He hit the front far too early here last time, and I expect Ed Austin to try to ask for an effort from him as late as possible, as he did at Newcastle, where a last-flight error did not aid his cause.
3.15 Herring Queen Series Final Mares’ Novices’ Handicap Hurdle 2m 51yds
Only three make any appeal here, with Theatre Glory and Rae Des Champs looking on workable marks, but that pair will surely prove better granted a stiffer test that an extended two miles around the turns of Kelso. In the circumstances, Aliomaana – who should get an uncontested lead – looks the one to side with.
Experience
Milton Harris’s juvenile has plenty of experience having shown useful form as far back as early September, when she would likely have won but for a last-flight fall. She made amends there next time, winning hard held by almost 30 lengths, and was beaten less than four lengths by stablemate Knight Salute at Cheltenham in November.
Aliomanaa’s only poor run came on ground she failed to handle at Aintree in December, and after having a break, she bounced back to winning form at Wincanton.
Despite her maturity, she still receives a 10lb allowance against the older mares here, and she can make that count.
Recommended
Garrus 1.50 Doncaster – 2pts win, 15/8 (general)
Mujtaba 3.35 Doncaster – 2pts win, 7/2 (general)
Aliomanaa 3.15 Kelso – 2pts win, 5/1 (general)
Winners
Last week Rory tipped Uttoxeter
winner Beauportat 7/2 and Kelso winners Sebastopol (9/4 jf) and Press Your Luck (10/1).
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