WHEN the weather intervenes in racing’s plans, there is always a temptation to take the occasional blank day and use it to look at the wider picture, so it’s no surprise that January tends to be the month where trainer form comes into sharper focus. There are some powerful yards in Ireland and the UK preparing what could be big teams for the Dublin Racing Festival and Cheltenham beyond that, and the turn of the year can be a time for a turn in fortunes.

Willie Mullins really only gets going in December, so it’s an opportune time to start examining the relative strength of the yard’s entries for the big meetings, and the fact that the championship events at Cheltenham close around this time of year, makes that project more rewarding than it would be a mere fortnight earlier.

But, as well as trying to read between the lines with the main stables, there’s a temptation to ask the question as to which of those big yards aren’t getting the winners expected at present and ask the question as to whether those barren runs should spell danger with Cheltenham in mind.

The first point to note is that the only trainers in Ireland worth following blind in the weeks since Christmas have been Joseph O’Brien and Gavin Cromwell, while backers of Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins’ runners would be the heaviest losers.

That, of course, assumes punters are backing every runner from those stables in that period, and the losses are largely down to sheer weight of numbers, with Mullins in particular seeming to step things up in recent weeks, both in terms of quantity and quality.

Poor Spell

If the stats throw up a genuine concern, then it is the form of the Henry de Bromhead stable, with just a solitary winner from 29 runners in January. Should we be avoiding Henry’s runners going forward? That is a significant question to ask. Is a relatively poor spell from one of the best trainers around likely to prove a mere statistical blip or is it likely to produce an ongoing pattern of results.

One important aspect when considering a big stable is the mix of horses running at any one point, as trainers – being creatures of habit – tend to run their best horses in particular races and indeed at particular times, so it should not be too readily assumed that the bare statistics tell the whole story.

Blacktype

Just looking at blacktype races this season, de Bromhead’s strike-rate falls between that of his two main rivals and suggests a healthier picture and, when it comes to the likelihood of winning Grade 1 races at Leopardstown and Cheltenham in the spring, it makes a lot more sense looking at how horses in that echelon are performing, rather than getting hung up on how many maiden hurdlers are getting turned over.

Finally, there’s another measure worth looking at, and that’s a historical analysis of the stable in terms of whether success in midwinter tends to be a good omen for the spring and, while that is always true to some degree, the figures show that it’s not easy to extrapolate those figures when it matters.

To illustrate this in terms of the de Bromhead stable, his most successful Cheltenham Festival haul came with a remarkable six winners from 23 runners in 2021, but that was also the first season in several years when backing all the de Bromhead runners in December and January of the same season hadn’t produced significant profits. In fact, backing all the stable’s runners in December 2020 and January 2021 would have left backers with losses of €466.66 for a tenner stake.

The best way to get a snapshot of how an individual trainer is going to do at Cheltenham and beyond is to look at the level of form shown by their best horses, rather than how the stable’s ordinary inmates are performing two months before the big event. In 2021, Henry de Bromhead had Honeysuckle, Minella Indo, Bob Olinger, A Plus Tard, Notebook, Petit Mouchoir, Quilixios and Put The Kettle On for the major races at Cheltenham.

That was a formidable team in hindsight and resulted in unprecedented success. Four years later, the stars are harder to find and the chances of half a dozen winners is slim, but Henry has managed to bag a brace or more at each of the last six Cheltenham Festivals, and I’d not like to bet on him failing to match that achievement again.

MY Cheltenham portfolio is in a state of infancy at the moment, with last week’s suggestion of Spillane’s Tower for the Ryanair my first foray and a way of getting my toes wet in an ante-post sense. I’ve added to that in a modest way by backing Lecky Watson for the Broadway Novices’ Chase (that’s the Brown Advisory for the newbs) as I’ve long been a fan of the chesnut as a prospective staying chaser, and I think quotes of 14/1 NRNB are pretty attractive for all his trainer has a more obvious candidate in Ballyburn.

Lecky Watson was not foot-perfect in winning what was the Killiney Novice Chase at Punchestown, but he was clever when he had to be and showed a good attitude to extend his unbeaten run over fences by beating Down Memory Lane by eight lengths. I’m not sure the heavy ground was a great help to him at the weekend and he was more impressive in his jumping when beating Slade Steel going left-handed at Naas before that.

I think there’s plenty more to come from Lecky Watson now he’s got the strength to match his frame, and he will improve further when given a chance to tackle three miles, particularly as he now settles much better than used to be the case.