THE run-in at Aintree must be the longest in racing but the punting run-in to the Cheltenham Festival now begins as early as the Monday after, just as you recover from the previous Festival.

This week, on the back of all the Christmas ‘clues’, the entries for the three big Grade 1 chases were revealed. Not many surprises. Willie heads all three markets. Cheveley Park have ‘three chances’ in the Ryanair, for Shishkin, it is Gold or nothing.

Odds are not going to change much for most of the all-aged Grade 1s, you know the form, you take your chance now. There is little margin for change in six weeks.

Do you want to back horses because you think they will win or simply because they will be shorter in March, should they line up?

Quite simply horses who run well or win at Cheltenham tend to run well again,

Those who have had a crack and come up short tend to do so again. There are quite a few, been there, didn’t do it in the Champion Chase. You can eliminate half the field. Ferny Hollow is the enigma, but given how fragile he has been, it’s a risky proposition getting involved this early.

I don’t really get the love for front runners as it looks a pacy race and one suggestion, Gentleman De Mee, apart from that one Aintree win in the spring, has usually met his match when taking on the very best on the days when all are primed.

Edwardstone has two engagements and would now look more suited to the longer race for which is is best 12s.

You don’t like to see a horse fall but once he is fine, it can knock him out a few points in the markets and my each-way horse in the Champion Chase is Boothill.

He has never run at Cheltenham but Johnny Burke is a positive on board and he is still progressive, now into grade company, and can be ridden off the pace in a race that looks to be run at a high tempo. The 25s is decent in a race that might lack depth behind the big two.

The only ‘edge’ you can get is a general overreaction to a bad run. That is the case with Stage Star. Impressive winner of the Turners Novice last season and in the Paddy Power Chase at the track in November, the urge to knock him off an obviously well below par PU on heavy ground on New Year’s Day is bizarre. A duel with Allaho will be something to look forward to.

Gold Cup

I had a quick look back of the period 2000-2023 for Gold Cup statistics.

Two British-trained winners in the last 10 unnings

Favourites winning: 11/23, (47.8%)

Longest priced winners: Lord Windermere 20/1, 2014; Al Boum Photo, 12/1, 2019. Nothing else was above 9/1

Age: 7 or 8yo – 18/23, (78%) Shishkin and Corach Rambler are older than winner since Cool Dawn in 1998 – it’s a big stat to overcome with horses peaking earlier and sent over fences earlier.

The stats indicate the winner will be an Irish-trained seven or eight year-old at less than 10/1. It leaves the top three horses in the markets and Gentlemansgame on those stats.

Galopin Des Champs has put up two performances worthy of comparison to the best of recent winners.

Connections think Gerri Colombe is better than he showed at Christmas but he was close to Conflated again when that one fell. The majority of the Elliott horses were spot on for Leopardstown. Neither The Real Whacker nor those in the Aintree Grade 1 have done much for last year’s form.

The only two horses who look likely to put up performances that will see prices contract somewhat are L’Homme Presse and Gentlemansgame. One has impressive course form which is a big plus and the 20s could halve.

Progressive handicappers don’t win the Gold Cup. They stay but are generally burnt off and demoralised on the run from the water to three out and done with at the bottom of the hill. But then we can’t call Hewick just a handicapper anymore.

It leaves the top three horses, though Gentlemansgame is still the darkest horse in the field and 25/1 could underestimate his ability. Presumably he will run at Leopardstown so more will be revealed then. Going for Gold off just four chase runs is a big ask but it can be done.

The five ‘shorties’ were put up this week with the question – which one would you take on?

That’s easy, where is the weak link – the novice chasers. On all known form, the other three are the best in their races and have proven themselves over track.

The Arkle badly needs opposition for Marine Nationale though.

When Gaelic Warrior was motoring to victory at Limerick, and Cheltenham might be looking a formality, with even money the general offer, I heard a wee voice whispering Nick Dundee in my head. And stick in Galopin Des Champs’ mishap at the last in his Turners. Fences add drama.

With the news that Inthepocket is out for the season, it looks more and more the Willie show on the novice chasing scene. And I’ve even come round to thinking the 10s for Facile Vega in the Turners (he’s not a two miler is he?) is not a bad option at this stage!