THE European turf flat season is almost over, all but a handful of classic clues have been identified by those anticipating the arrival of the 2016 campaign, and last week saw the addition of an unexpected name to the mix as the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy winner Marcel struck at odds of 33/1.

Some who spring a surprise in a top juvenile event are exposed individuals who benefitted from lucky circumstances, or who have put up an unrepeatable once-in-a-lifetime effort, but the colt who beat Johannes Vermeer by a length and a half at Doncaster is a lightly-raced one with classic potential.

He has won two of this three starts, is by the sire of a recent mile classic star, and is an obvious candidate for any of the early-season colts’ classics.

Those who win the Racing Post Trophy are often viewed as potential Derby colts, but although Marcel comes from the immediate family of a Group 1 Melbourne Cup winner, there is no guarantee that he will stay at Epsom or at the Curragh next summer.

The Group 1 Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) was mentioned in his connection and aspects of his pedigree suggest that the 10 and a half furlong trip at Chantilly may be as far as he will want to go.

Marcel was bred by David Hyland of Oghill House Stud, which was featured in The Irish Field a fortnight ago, and the colt’s first public appearance was when making €50,000 at the foals section of the Goffs November Sale.

Eleven months later he fetched only 26,000gns from Book 2 of the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale, and now he is a Group 1 scorer who could play a starring role on the track before going on to a likely stallion career.

Marcel is a son of the Group 1 Prix du Jockey-Club winner Lawman (by Invincible Spirit), and that half-brother to Group 1 Prix de Diane (French Oaks) heroine Latice (by Inchinor) was one of two Ballylinch Stud stallions to get a juvenile pattern scorer last Saturday.

He is well-established as a source of talented milers and his latest star is his fourth winner at the highest level.

Law Enforcement won the Group 1 Gran Criterium in Italy, Coolmore stallion Most Improved won the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes, and Just The Judge, who won the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes as a juvenile, added the Group 1 Irish 1000 Guineas and the Grade 1 E P Taylor Stakes.

That filly excelled from eight to 10 furlongs, and in addition to her big wins she was placed in each of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, the Beverly D Stakes, the Pretty Polly Stakes, and the Coronation Stakes, all Group/Grade 1.

We know that a Lawman can achieve prominence on the international stage, but can he get a mile and a half pattern horse?

The answer is yes.

His grandam Light The Lights (by Shirley Heights) was one, which gives him the potential to sire at least a few who could achieve that feat, and his daughter Forces Of Darkness is the first of his progeny to do so.

A half-sister to this year’s Group 2 Norfolk Stakes winner Waterloo Bridge (by Zoffany), she won the Group 3 Prix Minerve over 12 and a half furlongs at Deauville a few months after coming off worst in a three-way photo for the 10 furlong Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary.

So what does the distaff side of Marcel’s pedigree tell us?

He is the second foal out of an unraced mare called Mauresmo (by Marju) and the first thing about her that catches the eye, on paper, is that she is a full-sister to the Group 2 Diadem Stakes runner-up Munjiz.

SPEEDSTER

That prolific speedster was also placed in the Group 3 Phoenix Sprint Stakes at Leopardstown, in the Listed Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock, and in the Listed Cammidge Trophy at Doncaster, a record that is admirable but that does not inspire confidence in his nephew’s prospects of staying beyond a mile.

But then you notice his full-brother Mutawaffer who was only beaten by half a length when runner-up in a heritage handicap over 12 furlongs at York.

Mobtaker, another full-brother, stayed 10 furlongs and so did their half-brother Khalas (by Wolfhound), despite being the son of a sprinter.

Their ability to stay that trip was to be expected as not only was their dam by an influential source of stamina, but she, Absaar (by Alleged), was a half-sister to the Group 1 Melbourne Cup winner At Talaq (by Roberto).

He also won the Group 1 LKS MacKinnon Stakes at Flemington and the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp, he was placed in the Group 1 Derby Italiano, in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup, and in the Group 1 Grosser Preis von Berlin, and although quite young when he died, his pattern-winning offspring included the Group 1 star and Australian sprint champion Skating.

One might expect a son of Roberto and an Alleged mare to show stamina on the track, so what of his siblings?

His half-sister Annoconnor (by Nureyev) was by a comparative speed influence, she raced in the USA, and she was a triple Grade 1 winner over nine furlongs. Her descendants include the 10-furlong Group 3 winner Caesarion (by Danehill) and also Chestnut Bird (by Storm Bird), a dual French 10-furlong listed scorer who was only beaten by three-quarters of a length when third in a similar contest over one and a half furlongs further in very soft ground.

There are various other blacktype horses under the branches of this third generation of Marcel’s pedigree, and although they include 2010’s Listed Svenskt Derby winner and Scandinavian champion Moe Green (by Xaar), Far Lane also catches the eye.

His dam Pattimech is a sprint-winning full-sister to Annoconnor and he is by the ace miler Lear Fan (by Roberto), which makes him quite closely related to At Talaq.

He won the 10 and a half furlong John Smith’s Cup at York, added the Group 3 Darley Stakes over nine furlongs and the Listed James Seymour Stakes over 10, and then went to Australia where he took a Group 3 contest over a mile and five at Morphettville.

We know that a Lawman can stay the Derby trip and that some in the family have handled it, and further, so there is a chance that Marcel could last the distance at Epsom.

More likely, however, is that his best performances will come from around eight to 10 and a half furlongs, which makes the Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club the favourite if this promising young colt is going to become a middle-distance classic star.