TWO more Group 1 classics were run last weekend, with the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches (French 1000 Guineas) going to the undefeated filly La Cressonniere (by Le Havre), whose pedigree I reviewed here in March, and the Poule d’Essai des Poulains (French 2000 Guineas) going to a colt who could be one of the brightest stars of 2016.

The Gurkha made his debut over a mile on ground described as soft-to-heavy at Leopardstown in early April, finishing a six and a quarter length third behind Claudio Monteverdi. Similar underfoot conditions prevailed when he reappeared at Navan 11 days later, but this time he stormed home by nine lengths.

On Sunday he produced one of the most visually impressive performances of the year so far, winning his classic prize by five and a half lengths from First Selection and Dicton.

Although the time he clocked was almost a second slower than that recorded by La Cressonniere, and the prior form of those behind him a bit below what one might expect of Group 1 company, he was utterly dominant on the day and it will be a surprise if this is to remain his only victory at the highest level.

It was inevitable that such a powerful display would see him shoot to the head of the ante-post market for the Group 1 Investec Derby as he is a classic-winning son of Galileo (by Sadler’s Wells), he is trained by Aidan O’Brien, and has a recent Arc winner among his relations.

But is he guaranteed to stay 12 furlongs? No.

RELATIONS

It is possible that he will not only stay the distance but be well suited by it, but as he is out of the seven-furlong Group 3 scorer Chintz (by Danehill Dancer) and is a full-brother to Queen Nefertiti, it is also possible that the 10 and a half furlongs of the Group 1 Prix du Jockey-Club (French Derby) might be as far as he wants to go.

He was bred by the Chintz Syndicate, he is the third foal of his dam, and his ill-fated full-brother Illinois was an easy debut winner over seven and a half furlongs at Tipperary as a juvenile.

Queen Nefertiti was a four and a half length debut winner over seven furlongs at Leopardstown in June of her juvenile season, which might have suggested she could stay middle-distances at three, but it was also over seven that she got her only blacktype, third in the Group 3 Brownstown Stakes at Fairyhouse.

She was beaten both times over a mile, including when down the field behind Legatissimo in the Group 1 1000 Guineas, and she was only fifth of six in the Group 3 Meld Stakes over a furlong farther.

If The Gurkha has inherited the speed of his dam and full-sister then he will not stay 12 furlongs.

So what of his other relations? His grandam, Gold Dodger (by Slew O’ Gold), whose listed success came over 10 furlongs in heavy ground at Longchamp, was listed-placed over a mile and a half and that mare’s pattern-winning dam was only beaten by three-parts of a length when runner-up to Saganeca in the Group 2 Prix de Royallieu, so she stayed too.

That mare is Brooklyn’s Dance (by Shirley Heights), her dozen successful progeny included six blacktype scorers and one of her descendants is a recent classic-placed dual Group 1 star in France.

Solemia (by Poliglote), who sprang a 33/1 surprise when beating Orfevre by a neck in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, also won the Group 2 Prix Corrida, she was runner-up in the Group 2 Prix du Conseil de Paris and third in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille.

Her half-brother Prospect Wells (by Sadler’s Wells) won the Group 2 Prix Greffulhe and was runner-up in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris before eventually going on to a Grade 2 victory over hurdles and even point-to-point success.

That gelding’s full-brother, Prospect Park, was not only a pattern winner over 12 furlongs but lost to Blue Canari in a photo finish for the Group 1 Prix du Jockey-Club in 2004, when the classic was still run over that distance.

Their lightly-raced half-sister Never Green (by Halling) never tried the trip and got her listed success over nine and a half furlongs, and Brooklyn’s Gold (by Seeking The Gold) got his over 10 and a half, but was later a multiple winner over hurdles.

If some of this stamina has been passed on to The Gurkha then he will stay the Derby distance. So we won’t know for certain until he tries the trip.

STRIKING

What is also striking about those relations is that their distance preferences were pretty much in keeping with what might have been expected of horses by their sires, and that could make another of their half-sisters an important piece of the puzzle.

Brooklyn’s Storm was a precocious two-year-old who certainly stayed seven furlongs and probably stayed the mile, and this daughter of Storm Cat (by Storm Bird) went on to become the dam of the Group 2-placed miler Stormina (by Gulch) who is, in turn, the dam of Silasol (by Monsun).

That filly won the Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac as a juvenile, added the Group 1 Prix Saint-Alary at three, was third to Treve in the Group 1 Prix de Diane (French Oaks), and then unplaced behind that superstar over 12 furlongs in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille.

The first three generations are what play the most important part in determining a horse’s potential, but if you go back further in this family you will find that The Gurkha’s fifth dam is Green Valley (by Val De Loir), dam of Group 1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains hero and leading sire Green Dancer (by Nijinsky) and grandam of Group 1 star and classic sire Alhaarth (by Unfuwain).

They are too remote from The Gurkha to have a role in predicting whether or not he might stay the Derby distance, even though both of them were best over short of that, but what their presence does do is advertise the success that stallions from this female line can achieve at stud, and that won’t be lost on those queueing up to use the services of Europe’s newest Group 1 classic hero when he eventually retires from the track.