It was a good weekend for Colin Keane’s hopes of regaining the Irish flat jockeys’ championship.
He rode a double at Dundalk on Friday night, and with Donnacha O’Brien drawing a blank on the same card, the Meath jockey’s lead grew to three - 87 winners to 84. With Keane travelling to Ayr on Saturday to ride Buffer Zone in the Ayr Gold Cup, O’Brien looked to have a good opportunity to claw back that deficit at Gowran Park but the rains came, and now Keane will be able to ride at the meeting which has been rescheduled to this Thursday.
As I write, Donnacha has now got two back. He got Chrysalism up to win the opener at Fairyhouse. Then he delivered Myth Creation to win the second race. The horse he beat in the first was Vormir. The jockey was Keane. What could have been 88 to 85 is now 87 to 86. It's these races that could make the difference at the end.
The pair are well clear in the race for the title once again, only this time it is a lot closer. At this stage last season, bookmakers were not even offering prices on the championship as O’Brien had built up what turned out to be an unassailable lead. This year and this time, the market is close. As of today, Paddy Power have adjusted their prices to 8/11 O’Brien and evens for Keane.
Similiar to last season, both Keane and O’Brien’s pathways through the season differ. Keane’s 565 rides (inside the flat championship) is the most of any jockey. In the calendar year, he has ridden winners for 17 different trainers. That sharply contrasts with Donnacha, who has had over 200 less rides within the championship and whose winners have basically all been supplied by Aidan and Joseph O’Brien, with Willie Mullins the only other trainer he has ridden a winner for in the calendar year.
Aidan and Joseph were first and second in the trainers’ championship last season and look set to finish in those positions again this term. Many will hold the view that Donnacha is in the position he is solely because he is riding for these two stables.
It’s difficult to deny that completely. Indeed, Donnacha has often referred to the advantage himself but you can’t deny that he is a very talented rider and perhaps more commendable is his commitment to make weight, which has to be a difficult way of life.
There are 25 and a half flat meetings left (the half is the mixed card at Tipperary on October 6th) in the championship which ends at Naas on Sunday, November 3rd.
However, it’s a busy time of the year outside of Ireland which, all things being equal, is likely to impact Donnacha more. Keane will travel to Newmarket this Saturday if Siskin is declared for the Middle Park Stakes but bar Khalid Abdullah’s horse is aimed at another Group 1 after that, Keane will be available to ride at home for the rest of the season.
Donnacha will also probably be required to ride at Newmarket this Saturday - he rode a Group 1 double on the same card last season - but there will also be other possible commitments for him that clash with Irish flat meetings. The Arc card is on the same day as those three flat races at Tipperary, the Dewhurst clashes with a Limerick flat card and both British Champions Day and the Vertem Futurity Stakes clash with two Saturday flat meetings at Leopardstown.
However all things may not be equal. Many believe this could be Donnacha’s last year in the saddle and if it is, a huge aspect of this flat jockeys’ championship will be if and what he prioritises. What does he value more - to ride in Group 1 races or a second championship? Reading between the lines, it was interesting that it was he who went to Doncaster for the St Leger and Ryan Moore who rode in Leopardstown for the first day of Irish Champions Weekend, perhaps because that was a final classic opportunity for him. Perhaps not, and of course he could end up accomplishing both targets, but it will be harder because Keane isn’t going to be stopping.
The 2017 champion has clearly worked hard to continue his progression and his star continues to rise gradually. He seems to be winning more admirers with each passing racing day and showed his class on the big stage in Britain when guiding Mustajeer to his Ebor success last month.
He is young and you’d often wonder if he has or will ever be approached by a bigger owner or stable. I think it would take a lot because he has a good situation now. He is at home, where he grew up and that counts for a lot. Ger Lyons has shown great faith in him and uniquely, the pair have progressed together, Siskin giving them a deserved maiden Group 1 success in Ireland this season. There is surely a strong link between them. But you never say never in sport.
In the meantime, there is a championship to be won and the bell has already rung for the next round which takes place at Fairyhouse today.