THERE have been no fewer than 14 Irish winners at any of the last five Cheltenham Festivals but to say Irish trainers have done well there is a little inaccurate as that success has been mainly powered by Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott. Of the 81 Irish-trained winners since 2016, Mullins has had 31 with Elliott on 27, a combined 72% of the total, and if anything, this year’s altered programme sets up better for them.

Neither had won the novices’ handicap chase in its 16-year history (in fact it was only twice won by an Irish horse), whereas their chances in the new mares’ chase would seem obvious. No one is better with female horses than Mullins, and while Elliott is not at that level, three of his festival winners have been mares: Shattered Love, Fayonagh and Apple’s Jade.

That the two dominant trainers will have numerous winners over the four days seems almost certain but the idea here is to pick 10 horses from each yard that may not be quite so obvious, using the criterion that none was trading at a single-figure price at the time of the writing in early January.

Willie Mullins

Canardier (FR)

8yo b g

Slattery Bloodstock Limited

Canardier has had just one run for Mullins thus far, falling at the final hurdle when in with a place chance in last year’s Coral Cup, but his absence since may actually be a positive as he has an excellent record fresh, his figures off a decent break reading:13115FF, both falls coming when still involved in the race.

He had run for his old yard the previous Christmas so even the Coral Cup run came when less fresh than ideal and in general horses moving to Closutton do better given time to settle in.

Cilaos Emery (FR)

9yo b g

Luke McMahon

If Chacun Pour Soi turns up well in the Champion Chase, it is his race to lose, but turning up has been his issue and Cilaos Emery may be an interesting dark horse for the race. He seemed on track for it last season with a pair of easy chase wins early last winter before a fall at the Dublin Racing Festival sent him back over hurdles where he acquitted himself well when fourth in the Champion Hurdle. His jumping remains a concern as he lacked fluency in the Clonmel Oil back in November, but that was not a bad run considering he carried a big penalty over a trip that stretches him.

Elimay (FR)

7yo gr m

John P. McManus

Elimay has not stood a lot of racing recently with just seven starts in her three seasons with Willie Mullins but when she makes the track she invariably puts up a peak effort with form figures of 26111122 in that time.

Seemingly as good over fences as over hurdles, she has options at Cheltenham and having been unbeaten in two chase starts in 2019/’20, looked a touch unlucky over hurdles at Punchestown in November, and was a very respectable second to stable companion Allaho over fences at Thurles in January.

Energumene (FR)

7yo br g

Tony Bloom

The betting markets for the three Grade 1 novice chases have had dominant favourites from early in the season in Shishkin, Envoi Allen and Monkfish, so, wellbeing permitted, Energumene is going to have to take on a star at Cheltenham, but he had a wow factor himself in winning at Gowran Park in November, and again at Naas in January.

The visuals on both occasions were backed up by good time figures and it seems a positive that his trainer rushed him through bumpers and hurdles last season to get him over fences.

Fan De Blues (FR)

6yo b g

Simon Munir & Isaac Souede

Though a winner just once in 16 career starts, Fan De Blues has been better than the result on many of his recent starts and appeals as one that could pop up at a big price in a handicap. A well-backed 11/2 shot, he was too keen in last season’s Ladbroke Hurdle before getting a wide trip at the Galway Festival and then just defeated by a talented sort at Killarney.

He was beaten a long way at Navan in December but that off a break over a trip too far and he travelled well for a lot of the race. He was fancied again at Fairyhouse in January, where he wore a hood, and finished seventh on heavy ground.

Kilcruit (IRE)

6yo b g

Miss M A Masterson

Elliott would appear to hold the Champion Bumper ace at this point with Sir Gerhard but Mullins has a number of darts, perhaps most notably Kilcruit, who looked much improved for the move from his brother Tony’s yard when winning at Navan in December. The form is a little questionable at this point but the visuals were striking and he did some good late splits.

Lady Breffni (IRE)

6yo br m

Mark Dobbin

The Grade B Navan handicap hurdle won by Flooring Porter in December has worked out with the winner and the second running well at Christmas, and Lady Breffni shaped with promise in fourth on her first start for Willie Mullins, not helped by errors at the last three flights. She had been well-backed then, suggesting her opening mark is fair. She caught the eye again when fourth at Leopardstown in February.

Melon (GB)

9yo ch g

Mrs J. Donnelly

Given he has won just once since November 2017, Melon might rate an unlikely Cheltenham winner but his Festival record is Theatreworld-esque and he is interesting in the place and each-way markets if nothing else.

Though now a nine-year-old, he looked better than ever under a forceful ride in the Savills Chase, his jockey of the view that he sent him for home too early. Waiting tactics in the Irish Gold Cup did not work, and he looks likely to put up a good show at Cheltenham, where his now assured jumping could be an asset.

Saint Sam (FR)

4yo b g

Edward Ware

Beating Zanahiyr is going to be a challenge for any juvenile hurdler this spring, but Saint Sam ran well behind him at Fairyhouse in November off a 134-day absence and carrying a penalty before looking ill-suited by the slow pace when fourth to the same rival at Christmas. He finished well when his jockey finally extricated him from a pocket and looked to have more to give. He has since finished a respectable second to Quilixios at Leopardstown in February.

Stattler (IRE)

6yo br g

R A Bartlett

Two miles in bumpers was a bit sharp for Stattler for all that he acquitted himself well in his freshman season, but the step-up in trip over hurdles has seen him improve and there should be more to come over three miles.

Though beaten on his hurdling debut at Naas in November, that form worked out , and he seemed to have learned plenty when winning at Leopardstown over Christmas. Stamina looked his strong suit again when second to Gaillard Du Mesnil at Leopardstown in February.

Gordon Elliott

Abacadabras (FR)

7yo b g

Gigginstown House Stud

Abacadabras was disappointing at Christmas, but his yard was quiet at the time and he had mucus in his trachea post-race. He was well held when second to Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle but wWe know from last year’s Supreme that he relishes the speed-emphasising Old Course, decent ground and a strong pace. It is not hard to see him running well in what is a more open Champion Hurdle since Epatante’s Kempton defeat.

Call Me Lyreen (IRE)

5yo b g

Lyreen Syndicate

Unbeaten on his first three starts, including a graded win at Naas last November on ground slower than ideal, Call Me Lyreen was disappointing behind Appreciate It at Christmas but that may be worth forgiving. Again, the ground was softer than he’d like and it was a fourth run since mid-September and he would be interesting if freshened up for something like the County Hurdle, his hold-up style conducive to a race like that.

Escaria Ten (FR)

6yo b g

McNeill Family

While a bit disappointing when down the field in last season’s Martin Pipe, the intermediate trip over hurdles was an insufficient test for Escaria Ten and he has looked much more at home as a chaser over farther. He shaped second best when fifth to Monkfish first time this term at Fairyhouse before an easy win at Thurles and again ran well when second to Eklat De Rire at Naas in January.

Farclas (FR)

7yo gr g

Gigginstown House Stud

The 2018 Triumph Hurdle winner took well to chasing in early summer 2019 after a difficult second season hurdling and there has been distinct promise in his two runs over fences this winter after returning from a 522-day absence. He was fifth to Daly Tiger at Punchestown in November, overcoming a bad error down the back and being held up in a slowly run race, before a fine third in the Paddy Power. He appeared to run to a similar level when fourth in the Leopardstown Chase. He looks to have another bog payday in him.

Mount Ida (IRE)

7yo b m

KTDA Racing

Mount Ida has done most of her racing around two miles to date but has long looked one that will be better over further and it is to her credit she was able to win a graded chase for mares at Cork in December over the minimum having been off the bridle before the other principals. Her time there compared quite well to Chacun Pour Soi on the same card. In January she finished second to Colreevy in a two and a half mile contest, and looked as if she would stay further.Pencilfulloflead (IRE)

7yo b g

Robcour

Monkfish is hardly a bad favourite for the RSA but Pencilfulloflead has improved for the switch to fences this season and is the type of horse the market can struggle to catch up with as he is still being judged on his hurdles runs.

Form lines with Latest Exhibition give him at least a chance of beating Monkfish and he ran well at Limerick on St Stephen’s Day despite the trip looking too sharp. He was carrying a 6lb penalty when he finished third to Eklat De Rire and Escaria in a Grade 3 at Naas in January.

Percy Warner (IRE)

5yo b g

Basil Holian

Elliott has cornered a large chunk of the expensive former pointer market in recent years but Percy Warner was relatively cheap by his standards at €100,000 and he looks good value judged on his winning debut at Navan a month later. He won despite conceding experience to Flanking Maneuver (an easy winner since), the pair clear in an excellent time, and wasn’t all out to do so. He looks graded class.

Riviere D’Etel (FR)

4yo gr f

Noel and Valerie Moran

Zanahiyr looks one of the more solid short-priced horses at this year’s Cheltenham Festival but his owners Noel and Valerie Moran have a talented back-up in the filly Riviere D’Etel who ran out an easy winner on her Irish debut in a three-year-old maiden hurdle at Punchestown on New Year’s Eve. That race has a habit of throwing up a decent juvenile. She was a bit keen when third to older horses at Navan in January, which probably rules her out of the Triumph, but the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle is an option. ?

The Storyteller (IRE)

10yo ch g

Mrs P. Sloan

Though his excellent 2020 has been mainly about chasing, The Storyteller is a talented and consistent hurdler too with form figures 2F2112U16212 in that sphere. His second in the Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle is worth upgrading as he was caught further back than ideal in a slowly run race, while he ran an excellent second over the Stayers’ Hurdle course and distance last year; he is an intriguing outsider for this year’s Thursday feature.

Torygraph (IRE)

6yo bb g

Gigginstown House Stud

Like the aforementioned Stattler, Torygraph struggled in bumpers and over shorter trips as a hurdler but produced a much-improved effort to win a near three-mile maiden hurdle at Fairyhouse in December. He pulled 13 lengths clear of the runner-up there, to whom he was conceding 8lb, and with that horse winning since it looks a strong piece of form. Torygraph impressed again over three miles at Thurles in January.