THE Grade 2 Virginbet Old Roan Limited Handicap Chase at Aintree was memorable for a good front-running ride from Brian Hughes on Minella Dreams and perhaps not such a well-judged effort from Derek Fox on Ahoy Senor, who finished well in third.

The pace was moderate, with Minella Dreams getting an unpestered lead and able to save energy for a strong finish. He was 6lb lower in the weights than when second last year, but the most significant part of this victory was the ride that he got.

Having got an easy lead, Brian Hughes increased the gallop six furlongs from home and Minella Dreams finished the race relatively strongly. A final four furlongs of 56.76s gave him a Finishing Speed Percentage of 106.86% and this strong finish was courtesy of an energy-saving ride through the first mile and three-quarters.

Minella Dreams had been able to buy lengths when they were cheap in the early part of the race and then sell them back, when they were relatively expensive through the final four furlongs.

In getting first run on his rivals, Brian Hughes had this race won by the time they reached the second last. The steady gallop allowed his nearest pursuers to finish strongly as well, none more so than Ahoy Senor, who was given too much to do.

The final four-furlong splits and FSP’s of the first three are below.

1. Minella Dreams: 56.76s 106.86%

2. Hitman: 56.58s. 107.32%

3. Ahoy Senor: 55.91s. 108.65%

The data clearly points to Ahoy Senor as being fastest through the final four furlongs.

In general, we have to be cautious in upgrading horses who finish strongly having saved more energy than their rivals, but in this case, it is clear that he would have gone close to winning had he been ridden closer to the pace.

I understand the change in tactics with him, the theory being that on his seasonal reappearance getting him jumping well and finishing his race strongly amounts to a confidence-boosting start to the season, but punters are not so forgiving.

Ahoy Senor certainly jumped better than has been the case in the past. In fact, the data tells us that he was the best in the race, gaining 4.59 lengths at his fences.

For context, Minella Drama lost 3.04 lengths. He had also been the best jumper in the race on his final start of last season, when he finished second to Gerri Colombe in the William Hill Bowl at Aintree. This suggests his jumping is becoming less of an issue than it was and he has a big prize in him this winter.

Guineas may bring out the best in Hotazhell

THE domestic flat season is drawing to a close, the final Group 1 of the season at Doncaster going to Hotazhell for the Jessica Harrington team, in what was an attritional renewal of the William Hill Trophy Stakes.

The times suggested that the ground was heavy, with the Race IQ Time Index average for the meeting being a very low 4.2 out of 10. Hotazhell handled conditions and fought out a narrow success over Delacroix, in what was a slow-motion finish, with both horses recording Finishing Speed percentages (FSP’s) below 100%.

1st: Hotazhell: 96.47%

2nd: Delacroix: 96.41%

Both will have classic pretensions next year and a soft ground Guineas may bring out the best in Hotazhell, whereas Delacroix may be more of a Derby prospect, an early season trial likely to be where we will see him next.

Valgrand showing lots of the va-va voom

RACING returned to Cheltenham and Aintree at the weekend to signal that the National Hunt season is upon us and we saw some interesting performances in terms of the Race IQ data.

After five months off the track, the Dan Skelton-trained gelding Valgrand took a huge step forward to win the Grade 2 Sky Bet Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham by 17 lengths. He travelled strongly, making all of the running to beat Gale Mahler, who came into this race unbeaten in her six previous hurdle races. He is unbeaten in three starts over hurdles and better things await given the data he produced.

Above all else, his jumping stood out as being little short of spectacular. The Race IQ Lengths Gained Jumping data shows that he gained ground on his rivals at every single hurdle, which amounted to him being 10.31 lengths better at his hurdles than Gale Mahler in second place.

The jumping envelope (30 metres before and 30 metres after an obstacle) for Race IQ Data purposes measures how much speed horses lose when travelling through that envelope and, to illustrate just how slick Valgrand was, his speed loss figures for every hurdle are compared below to Gale Mahler.