CITY Of Troy banished the doubters in the Betfred Derby last Saturday. Those that had readily forgotten his display of sustained speed last autumn in the Dewhurst Stakes were happy to rely on the spurious “not trained” on metaphor after his 2000 Guineas flop.
They sought to rely on a narrative based on him not having done well or still being small, readily ignoring just how fast he could run as a two-year-old, an ability which hadn’t just disappeared into thin air just because of one poor run.
It was a triumph for Aidan O’Brien and his team and a triumph for data over guessing how fast a horse can run from his appearance.
Given those comments, let’s revisit what City Of Troy did in the Dewhurst before looking at the Derby data.
In the Dewhurst, he made all in a ruthless display of speed and power. He got quicker as he went through the mid-part of the race, pulling clear with a penultimate furlong of 11.07secs. Below are the sectionals that caused many, including the Timeform organisation, to state that he could be “one of the greats”.
F1: 14.92secs (Standing Start)
F2: 11.88secs
F3: 11.93secs
F4: 11.68secs
F5: 11.35secs
F6: 11.07secs
F7: 12.02ecs
The Derby was run on ground that had dried out since the Oaks, with a negligible headwind in the home straight compared to Oaks Day.
City Of Troy completed the Derby in a time of 2m 38.32secs compared to Ezeliya in the Oaks who recorded 2m 42.12.
The 3.8secs difference is partly due to conditions but is also indicative that the Derby was a better race and City Of Troy is the better horse.
The Race iQ time index which considers conditions on the day and historical data backs up this opinion, allotting a time index score to Ezaliya in the Oaks of 3.06 and City Of Troy in the Derby 5.5 (Figures based on a scale of 0-10).
The Derby was a strongly run courtesy of the pacemaker Euphoric. It seemed as if Ryan Moore was keen to sit off the pace, harnessing City Of Troy’s speed for a strong finish. That tactic worked as City Of Troy made a big move from ninth place after a mile to the lead two furlongs later.
Each of his final four furlongs were the fastest in the race and are detailed below.
F9: 11.74secs
F10: 11.82secs
F11: 11.99secs
F12: 12.76secs (Only horse under 13.00secs through final furlong)
The data is suggesting that he was completely dominant and probably value for more than the winning margin.
His final three furlongs of 36.57secs compared to 37.18secs for Ambiente Friendly (second) displayed a superiority of three and a half lengths through that part of the race. He could perhaps have won by more had the loose horse not being a bit intimidatory in the closing stages.
One point emerges from the Race iQ stride data.
City Of Troy is a horse with a long stride. He flicks his legs out with very little knee curl. The data suggests that he was able to adapt his stride and cadence to the ups and downs of Epsom yet may be much better on a flatter track.
Cadence
In the Dewhurst he recorded an average stride length of 7.63 metres, his cadence (how fast he is pedalling effectively) 2.14 strides per second. In the Derby he reduced his stride length to 7.05 metres, and he found a lower cadence of 2.14 strides per second. This is partly due to the tempo of a mile and a half race, but it shows his adaptability and balance.
Connections have suggested he may run in the Travers Stakes on dirt at Saratoga on August 24th.
Although he is by the Belmont winner Justify, he does not move like a dirt horse. He doesn’t bend his knee and grab the ground. He floats over the ground and that is one of the reasons he is so good on turf.
It may be that he is just so good that he could get away with running on dirt, but it’s a completely different and much more attritional test.
ONCE a master trainer always a master trainer as Dermot Weld won the Oaks for the second time after a 43-year hiatus.
Ezeliya came into the race on the back of just three previous runs and she improved with every start, winning the Group 3 Salsabil at Navan before heading to Epsom.
The Oaks was strongly run with the first three sitting in seventh, 11th and 9th respectively after five furlongs. It became a test of stamina and many in the field found the test in the conditions too much.
Ezeliya travelled strongly and made her move into contention with the runner-up three furlongs out. Through the 10th furlong, Dance Sequence quickened marginally better than Ezeliya as recorded below.
F10: Ezeliya: 11.77secs (38.45mph)
F10: Dance Sequence: 11.57secs (38.77mph)
Thereafter, Ezeliya outstayed the runner-up who seemed not to handle the camber of the track, unable to maintain a straight line.
The final two furlongs belonged to Ezeliya and she was particularly impressive in the final one recording a split of 12.72secs compared to Dance Sequence’s 13.12secs.
It would be wrong to pigeonhole Ezeliya as being just a strong stayer. She has plenty of speed without having an electric turn of foot. Her Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) in the Oaks was recorded by Race iQ as being 110.64% which tells us her final three furlongs were 10.64% faster than the previous 11.
This is in accordance with what would be expected at this track in the conditions. The topographical nature of the track often leads to strong final three-furlong splits and Ezeliya did not disappoint.
Stride length
Her race iQ stride data shows her stride length was shorter than City Of Troy in the Derby, but her cadence was higher.
She recorded an average cadence through the race of 2.24 strides per second whereas City Of Troy recorded 2.14 strides per second. This is indicative of her action which is more rounded than City Of Troy and better suited to easy ground.
In a well-run race this was a strong staying performance, and it should be noted that all her wins came with soft in the going description. That makes her an interesting prospect for the Arc at ParisLongchamp where she will likely get to race on easy ground and will get the fillies’ allowance.
She’s currently 14/1 for the Arc which makes plenty appeal.