THERE have always been many quotable quotes around the Derby and one often recalled was of Lester Piggott allegedly muttering to Vincent O’Brien after El Gran Senor and Pat Eddery had been narrowly beaten by Secreto in 1984 – “Are you missing me yet?”

On the eve of the Derby this year, Ballydoyle had run 10 horses in the first seven classics of the season in Britain, Ireland and France and the best placing was River Tiber’s third in the Irish Guineas. City Of Troy had flopped in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and Ylang Ylang had been well beaten in the 1000 Guineas and Oaks. The much praised Justifys, Wootton Bassetts, even Frankels had come up empty in 2024.

In those moments before he drifted off to sleep, Aidan O’Brien might well have heard the ghost of Galileo whispering those same words – “Do you miss me?!”

This was the horse continually praised to the heights, and with the record to match.

One of Aidan’s many quotes: “What he put into their minds, that genuineness, was out of this world.” We’d even heard you could tell a Galileo standing out by their heartbeat!

But by 4.30 on Saturday, all had changed. City Of Troy had fulfilled all the confidence and was proclaimed an outstanding horse.

And what was this from the master trainer? “Justifys are Galileos with more class” ... “they are quicker than Galileos”.

Class? The great sire might have risen up in ire at such disrespect. “My name is Maximus Decimus Meridius Galileo, commander of the Armies of Ballydoyle, and loyal servant to the true emperor Coolmore! I will have my vengeance. Show me your 99 Group 1 winners!”

Galileo is the benchmark by which recent excellence is measured…. today he possesses 12 British and Irish sires’ championships (one of them secured in 2017 with an incredible total close to £12m), and perhaps with the prospect of more to come. Nancy Sexton, August 2022 https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/

It does feel a bit premature to be hailing the new stallion king so soon compared to a sire whose list also includes a record five Derby winners in New Approach, Ruler Of The World, Australia, Anthony Van Dyck and Serpentine.

Justify gave us City Of Troy and Opera Singer, a pair of two-year-old stars and perhaps that gives him a headstart. It’s worth remembering that just one stakes winner, Innocent Air, emerged out of Galileo’s first crop of two-year-old runners in 2005.

Opera Singer should also improve on her debut run last month while London City and Capulet looked nice horses this season, though Capulet has been sold to Hong Kong.

But among the Ballydoyle four-year-olds by Justify: Red Riding Hood, Unless, Dame Kiri, Milwalkee, Diamondsareforever and All Time Great have one Group 3 and a listed win between them. All impeccably-bred of course.

The three-year-olds Pink Orchid, Kestrel, Mother Nature, Mayfair and Fleetingly have yet to win.

Justify will be represented by larger crops than Galileo ever was. Equineline.com says his three crops of racing age equate to 468 foals in the northern hemisphere

So we quite likely need another crop or two of two-year-olds to ‘justify’ the praise.

On the track

But let’s not have the stallion hype take away from what actually occurred on the track at Epsom. The pre-Derby promotion got plenty of attention and some in a humorous manner, how insistent Aidan O’Brien was that, after much negative comments on his appearance at Newmarket, that City Of Troy still measured up when it mattered. And in a fine triple Group 1 Epsom weekend for Ireland, Dermot Weld also acknowledged that his Oaks winner Ezeliya was “not a big filly but a very tough, genuine filly”.

Epsom was a triumph for those coming up an inch or two short in the physical sense. Not for the first time it was not the size of the horse but the size of the fight in the horse.

What caught the eye, contary to what we expected, was immediately they left the stalls, where many felt stall one was as a negative, and needing a reaction to move forward by Ryan Moore, there was no such haste and it was all very calm, letting the horse stride on in his own time. City Of Troy always looked comfortable.

Timeform rated him 129p to Rosallion’s 121, which looks a wide margin ahead of a very good miler. Economics is highly rated on his performance from York but the Dante form didn’t really get boosted in the Derby.

Where next is the question and how the season develops. Great horses win the Eclipse, there doesn’t appear to be much opposition among the older horses and surely it fits the bill perfectly for racehorse and future stallion to join the likes of Sadler’s Wells himself, Giant’s Causeway and Sea The Stars and more recent promising sires in Golden Horn, Ulysses, Ghaiyyath and St Mark’s Basilica.

Oddly, for a son of a Triple Crown winner on dirt, his great stride length, obvious to even the eye as he stretched out in the final half furlong, might render the Travers on dirt a difficult task. (see Time Will Tell p10)

Whereever he goes, it was quite the performance by horse and trainer to come back from the Guineas knockdown.

Drive on with the data

ONE of the fascinating elements to race analysis in recent years is the different methods of assessing a horse’s performance, comparable to another.

Sectional timing was the first big addition, then on the jumping side, the data on how much ground horses gain or lose through jumping, is a great recent tool.

There were lots of use of stride analysis data in the Epsom TV coverage, though much of this might still need some tweaking. It showed how even smaller horses can cover a lot of ground. However, it was interesting to note that Epsom, with much of it downhill, may not give the best results for the extent of a horse’s stride. Similarly soft ground - you would imagine - is bound to restrict a horse in stretching out rather than when racing on much firmer going.

Also, bearing in mind that Aidan O’Brien blamed stalls behaviour for spiking City Of Troy’s heart rate in the Guineas, how good it would be to know how much hitting a fence or making a bad mistake over hurdles at 30mph might hinder a horse or reveal how good one horse is to overcome such errors.

While the eye can tell a lot, there is so much to be gained and interest added by everything new data analysis are offering us.

Bring on the fitbit!