Ascot Saturday

1.30 Copybet 1965 Chase

(Grade 2) 2m 5f 8y

Pic d’Orhy picks himself here and is a hugely consistent chaser at this intermediate trip, the decision to aim him away from Cheltenham each season doing his longevity no harm. An easy winner of this last season, his main challenger is a veteran who last ran over fences two years ago, and he’s impossible to oppose - unless the rain is much heavier than anticipated.

2.05 1st Class Logistics Berkshire National Handicap Chase 3m 5f 94y

This looks competitive at first glance, but a couple of runs for fitness will have helped bring Inis Oirr to a peak and he makes plenty of appeal now returning to a marathon trip, having won the Edinburgh National for Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox in the spring. The seven-year-old improved for forcing tactics, as much as the fitting of a visor at Musselburgh, and was beginning to stay on when falling in the Scottish National on his final start.

He looks well-suited by long-distance chases and has run perfectly respectably over a bare three miles at Perth and Carlisle this season, with both of those runs looking like confidence boosters. The handicapper raised him 14lb to 133 for this 21-length rout in the Edinburgh National, but he’s been eased a little in the handicap since and Alan Doyle is able to claim a handy 5lb now. With fitness assured, he is confidently expected to bounce back to winning ways at a more suitable trip.

2.45 Howden Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m 3f 58y

I must admit for having a soft spot for Colonel Mustard, despite his modest strike-rate (I also liked the Tim Forster-trained Professor Plum when I was a youngster, so perhaps it’s a Cluedo thing).

Colonel Mustard once again drew me in, when an eye-catching second to Solness at Sligo on his return, doing good late work to get within three lengths of the winner, despite giving him and Danny Mullins plenty of rope (Cluedo) in front.

The son of Makfi ran well at this track as a novice, when not beaten far by Jonbon in the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Hurdle, and he’s always capable of throwing a spanner (Cluedo) in the works.

I think he’s a better horse at the weights than Blueking d’Oroux, who must concede weight to his rivals here, having received weight all round when landing the same race last year. Hopefully, Lorna Fowler’s talented but frustrating gelding can belatedly reward the patience shown, although I’m happy to take the inevitable (candle) stick if he gets beaten.

3.20 Lay & Wheeler Hurst Park Handicap Chase 2m 167y

Martator is 6lb higher than when a winning selection here on his return to action, but he’s capable of better if ironing out the mistakes and would have won comfortably last time, but for making an error at the penultimate fence when launching his challenge. Ned Fox takes 5lb off his back now and, while it’s dangerous to assume he will be error-free this time, he certainly possesses the scope to progress further if gaining more fluency with experience and that makes him the likeliest winner here.

Haydock Saturday

1.15 Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle 2m 2f 191y

Heavy rain is expected at Haydock overnight and into Saturday and I’d be very surprised if the going retained any good, if it even had any on Friday (a going-stick reading of 5.4 suggests otherwise).Soft all round would be my best guess, but weather updates will be crucial for punters trying to stay ahead of the game.

Josh The Boss should surely be shorter than his overnight price for this handicap hurdle, having won the Silver Trophy at Chepstow on his latest start, and that race has worked out exceptionally well, with the beaten horses winning seven races in the short time since that race last month.

Those include recent Cheltenham gamble Doyen Quest and listed winner Take No Chances, the pair who chased Josh The Boss home. Nigel Twiston-Davies’s five-year-old is 7lb higher, but it’s hard to argue with that assessment and he looks capable of winning again, with the slightly shorter trip arguably a positive.

1.50 Betfair Exchange

Graduation Chase 2m 5f 127y

Iroko suffered a setback after his impressive chase debut win and was reported as likely to miss the rest of the season, so he did well to recover well enough to be placed in Grade 1 company at Aintree, having simply lacked the sharpness of his main rivals in the Turners (Golden Miller) at Cheltenham in March on his return from that injury-enforced lay-off.

I’ve little doubt that Iroko can progress again with a clear run this season and the training partnership of Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero are going from strength to strength at present.

Trelawne is a danger, but he looked tricky even before crashing out at the second fence of the Ultima at Cheltenham when last seen and, despite his good record fresh, he’s not a horse I want to back until he can show he’s not a jibber.

2.30 Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle 3m 58y

Calum Hogan is an interesting booking for the James Owen-trained One Big Bang in this staying handicap and the unexposed six-year-old appeals as a progressive course and distance winner, who the handicapper may not yet have got to grips with.

A maiden for Paul Tobin, he immediately improved for Owen when winning here and at Uttoxeter in the spring, looking long on stamina when sluicing through the mud at the Midlands venue for his second success.

One Big Bang was beaten at Newton Abbot on his return to action, but probably found a sharp two miles and five furlongs not enough of a test and that run would have been designed to have put him spot on for this. Doyen Quest is obviously feared, but this race comes quickly after his Cheltenham success, and One Big Bang looks the better value of the pair.

3.05 Betfair Chase (Grade 1)

3m 1f 125y

By the time we get to the Betfair Chase, the ground is sure to be soft or deeper, and that rules two of these out at a stroke, namely Bravemansgame and Hewick. I’d also question whether Capodanno will cope with a slog on his first run of the season, as he normally wants a run to get him straight and his jumping doesn’t always hold up either.

The Real Whacker can be thrown into that category as well, with reverting to good ground surely the main catalyst for his return to form at Wetherby and his jumping is much more of an asset when he can bounce off the ground than when the mud is flying, and while Grey Dawning is an obvious contender, he looks short enough in the market, and Royale Pagaille looks poised to win again with conditions swinging in his favour.

Staying in slow ground is very much his game, and I expect him to be fully tuned up for this. It bears repeating that his overall Haydock record reads four wins from five starts, and this is very much his track.

He’s not always an easy watch, but he’ll grind these down in the last mile and, with a strong pace likely, stamina should be at a premium, which will play very much to his strengths.

Recommended

Inis Oirr 2.05 Ascot 2pts win 6/1 (Hills)

Josh The Boss 1.15 Haydock 1pt win 15/2 (Hills, 13/2 Bet365)

One Big Bang 2.30 Haydock 1pt win 8/1 (Hills, 7/1 Bet365)

Royale Pagaille 3.05 Haydock 2pts win 4/1 (general)