WHEN it comes to the Derby, breeding is the key? That’s what they tell us anyway. Let’s find a Frankel out of a Shamardal mare, now, wouldn’t that be perfect breeding for this task?

Except we find such a horse was winning a Ballinrobe two miles, six furlong handicap hurdle on Monday for Bill Durkan, having begun racing life in the Gosden yard. The game is not that simple.

And when you see that this week a horse named Arslan, by Wootton Bassett and from a Dynaformer mare, heading a point-to-point sale and heading to Closutton, it might be time to review thos breeding maxims.

That old ‘best to the best’ malarky might lead you astray as likely as not.

Last year’s Derby one, two, three did their bit for keeping the race front and centre of the rest of the season’s big races. This year’s race seems a lower key puzzle. But we have had such races before.

Absent from today are the better trial winners from York, Chester and Sandown and the 2000 Guineas threw up more milers. There seems to be an above normal amount of negatives for the leading fancies and a larger-than-expected bunch of ‘could be anythings’ pitched in, and from trainers not usually expected to be in the Derby parade ring ahead of the big race on the first Saturday in June.

City Of Troy seems to have more and more negatives. The poor Guineas run, an American dirt sire line, stamina questions, and all this from stall one, where he will have to come through the field. He has a lot to overcome and I find it hard to see him as the right favourite.

Strong concerns

Ancient Wisdom may have been Godolphin’s third string despite being a Group 1 winner at two. Hidden Law and Arabian Crown had done more this season. I would have strong concerns for his action and how he handles the track.

Ambiente Friendly has a ‘how good was Lingfield’ and pedigree questions (Gleneagles – Fastnet Rock dam) to answer.

That leaves us with Camelot as the strongest link back to the Sadler’s Wells line which dominated this race. He has four engaged with Dancing Gemini in the top five in the betting. Los Angeles has the looks, but I lost a bit of love for Camelot around this weekend in 2019, when Pink Dogwood lost an Oaks she looked sure to win and she proved a big disappointment that year.

So it really has a ‘stick a pin in it/Grand National’ feel to this Derby and even some of the outsiders are now reduced to poor value.

There’s a boyo in the local pub who always professes on a Friday night – ‘The pink sash, always trust the pink sash’. Juddmonte’s runner Macduff comes from the Sandown trial that his trainer won with Westover. He has the pedigree with Sea The Stars providing the stamina to add to Kingman’s class – dam a half-sister. With so many question marks around, he might be worth the each-way slant at 14s.

Is Birch the new big bird?

IT is probably an appropriate quote to resurrect on this Derby weekend. Back in 1970, and writing of the outstanding colt of the season, Brough Scott began: Nijinsky was the swallow that made a summer.

But we are more accustomed to the one swallow not making a standout season. And that is where we (or maybe just me?) stand with impressive Curagh winner White Birch.

He finished third in last year’s Derby, staying on well behind Auguste Rodin and King Of Steel, both subsequent Group 1 winners over 10 furlongs, looking as though the St Leger would be an ideal aim for him. But he ended his season at Leopardstown, fourth in a mile and a half Group 3, looking one-paced.

Roll on a year, and he dishes out a three-length beating to Auguste Rodin over 10 furlongs in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, reversing the Derby form by eight and a quarter lengths and always travelling comfortably over the shorter distance. The impressive three-length defeat earned him a Timeform rating of 128, identifying him as the joint-highest-rated flat horse in Europe along with Kyprios.

Was it too good to be true? Can we take this one swallow to announce something spectacular into this season?

It’s quite likely that Ulysses may have the two top older middle-distance colts in Europe at the moment as Passenger also shrugged off a medicore second half to his three-year-old season when winning at Chester recently.

And oddly, both reflect their sire’s three-year-old campaign which also went off the rails in the Derby; even though he won the Gordon Stakes later, it was at four he earned his reputation with two fine Group 1 wins.

Auguste Rodin beat the others easily on Sunday, as he should have done, and White Birch did physically look the stronger horse, despite Auguste filling the eye last season. The underfoot conditions were more to the grey’s liking than those on his big days last season.

He undoubtedly has improved but I would like to see him do it away from home before getting too carried away.