BOTH the Qipco 1000 and 2000 Guineas produced some interesting and revealing data. Notable Speech was a brilliant winner of the colts’ classic utilising the turn of foot that had earmarked his three previous wins at Kempton.

Elmalka took the fillies’ classic despite obvious inexperience and some of those who finished behind her make for interesting data analysis.

The Qipco 2000 Guineas was very strongly run with the winner, Notable Speech, recording a Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 96.77%, meaning that his final two furlongs were 3.23% slower than preceding six.

That he was slowing down in the latter stages does not devalue his effort in any way, he was keeping on a lot better than his rivals in a race where the tempo saw horses running on empty in the final quarter mile.

The Race iQ sectionals show that he was the only horse to dip under 12.00secs in the penultimate furlong. His seventh furlong splits compared to his nearest pursuers are detailed below.

Seventh furlong splits:

Notable Speech: 11.90secs

Rosallion: 12.17secs

Haatem: 13.52secs

His final two furlongs of 25.11secs were 0.44secs quicker than the runner-up which is equivalent to two and a half lengths. This finish was nothing like as fast as when he won at Kempton last time out. In that race he quickened smartly to record a closing quarter mile of 22.01secs.

That race was slowly run and tested his turn of foot, indeed that was the story of his first three wins.

On Saturday, he had to prove that he could perform off a stronger gallop and his response was emphatic.

It is not often that horses can win from well off the pace on the Rowley Mile and it must be the first time that both the 1000 and 2000 Guineas have been won by horses that raced in last place until after halfway. Both helped by a strong pace that inconvenienced horses ridden more prominently.

Race iQ are now providing stride data for all races and Notable Speech is a horse with a high cadence meaning that in effect he is pedalling quickly instead of having a long raking stride.

The data tells us that in terms of stride length in the 2000 Guineas, he had the shortest average stride in the field but the highest cadence. Below is the raw data.

Average stride length of first four in 2000 Guineas

1. Notable Speech: Stride length: 7.32 metres

2. Rossalion: Stride length: 7.66 metres

3. Haatem: Stride length: 7.7 metres

4. Ghostwriter: Stride length: 7.72 metres

Average cadence of first four in the 2000 Guineas (Expressed as strides per second)

Notable Speech: 2.41 strides per second

Rossalion: 2.31 strides per second

Haatem: 2.3 strides per second

Ghostwriter: 2.28 strides per second

With a shorter stride length than his rivals but a higher cadence we can infer that Notable Speech’s main asset is his speed.

In effect, he was able to pedal faster than his rivals. Horses with a long stride are usually staying types who go faster by lengthening their stride, whereas Notable Speech goes faster by increasing the number of strides he can make.

Everything about Notable Speech suggests he will be best at up to a mile, others from the Guineas may well stay further, a note is made of Ghostwriter whose pedigree and long stride suggest he is a stayer.

Data

What happened to City Of Troy? There is very little in the data to help answer that question. He attended the very strong pace, but so did Haatem and he finished third.

The Race iQ sectionals suggest he was a spent force after three furlongs. He dropped from third place to sixth through the fourth furlong and ran no sort of race. It remains to be seen if he can bounce back Auguste Rodin style.

THERE is a lot to unpick in the fillies’ classic. This was a strongly run contest with the winner slowly away and racing in last (16th). She was still 15th with three furlongs to run but stayed on strongly to win by a neck.

She recorded an FSP of 98.57% suggesting that rather than quicken sharply she stayed on past tiring horses.

Her final three furlongs of 11.72secs, 11.78secs and 12.83secs were enough to propel her to success, and she can be marked up given how green she was through the first half mile.

Her final two furlongs were not the fastest in the race. That honour belonged to Tamfana (fourth) who found plenty of trouble in running and flashed home. Their final two-furlong splits are below.

1st: Elmalka: 24.61secs

4th: Tamfana: 24.56secs

There is no doubt that Tamfana was unlucky and probably should have won. Her final furlong of 12.50secs was comfortably the fastest in the race.

Much has been said about the favourite Ramatuelle who some think was committed too soon by Aurelian Lemaitre. Visually this certainly looked to be the case, but the data paints a different picture.

She was ridden prominently, a bit too close to a strong pace and was a bit keen which didn’t help her seeing out the trip.

Her sectionals do not suggest that she surged to the front. Through furlongs five, six and seven she was slower than both the winner and the second. They were making a move from further back in the field just as she made her effort from closer to the pace.

Her so called premature move to the lead was more about horses weakening around her, and her defeat was more due to her racing keenly close to a strong pace and just failing to see out the trip. She would be interesting back down in trip.

Haggas filly has Group 1 speed

WINNER of a 10-furlong Newmarket maiden last Friday, the William Haggas-trained Sea Just In Time is very much one to follow.

Although this was only a fillies’ maiden, I don’t think it is fanciful to suggest she could win a Group 1 race one day.

This was her debut, and she was slowly away and held up in a steadily-run contest.

She recorded an FSP of 107.25% as she quickened past her rivals. Her penultimate furlong of 11.58secs took her to the front (runner-up 11.90secs) and she won cosily.

The impressive part of this performance was that she was able to run down horses that were not stopping. When a horse is at a positional disadvantage but can still run down horses that are quickening in front of them, it is a sure sign of ability.

The FSP’s of the first four tell us how strongly they were finishing and for Sea Just In Time to give them a head start and beat them easily is impressive.

Finishing Speed Percentages of first four:

Sea Just In Time: 107.25%

Precious Jewel: 104.55%

Mallevelly: 103.80%

Divine Presence 103.56%

Sea Just in Time is entered in the Irish Oaks and the Ribblesdale and must be followed.