ONE would think that applying simple logic to the game of breeding racehorses – the old ‘best to the best’ scenario – with only the best horses being granted spaces in the breeding shed, that the degree of talent in horses would be similar each year.

But just as on the flat, we have years when nothing dominates and it can appear a poor crop. It’s hard to say that the classic-winning colts’ crop of 2020, as an example, of Kameko, Siskin, Serpentine, Santiago and Galileo Chrome were in any way outstanding.

We are still waiting for a top young Irish-trained hurdler to grab the attention this season. In her analysis of the National Hunt Grade 1 winners of 2024 here last week, Amy Lynam noted that over half of them had been bred in France. (French breeders produced 25 of the 48 individual horses to win the 74 Grade 1s run in Ireland and the UK in 2024.)

More of the Grade 1 winners this season so far have been Irish-bred. Perhaps the French have just hit a poor season?

With the horses from the AQPS breed now very popular here - and those born in 2020 named with K as their initial letter - it has been noticeable how many of those five-year-olds novice hurdlers this year have joined Willie Mullins.

A quick search this week threw up the accompanying list of novices who have run for Mullins since September up to this week, with a perhaps a rather large number of 14 horses, listed as AQPS by France Galop, to have run so far for the champion trainer.

For the ‘get them going early’ touts, a total of 12 of those 14 had already run in France before moving to Closutton, with just Kara De Thaix and Keep Up making their debuts in Irish bumper races.

There are also some thoroughbred French-bred five-year-old novice hurdlers in the yard, and they include Funiculi Funicula who scored mid-week at Clonmel.

Volume of horses

It’s interesting on two fronts – one the volume of younger horses coming from France to the champion trainer – and these are not the sole five-year-old imports of this type by top trainers, Henry de Bromhead has two similar expensive ex-French horses in Kilgame (€300,000) and Koktail Divin (private), and point and bumper winner Koktail Brut is with Gordon Elliott but it’s a significant influx of French-bred and raced youngsters, either sourced by the champion trainer or for him by leading owners.

Apart from the six-year-old Tounsivator’s surprise Grade 2 win in the Bar One Racing Royal Bond Novice Hurdle and Salvator Mundi’s Grade 2 at the weekend, the Mullins novices have been slower than usual to make an impact in this season. The DRF Grade 1s are still to come and French-bred Kaid D’authie and Kopek Des Bordes are well talked up and to the forefront of Cheltenham betting but have only won maidens.

Another AQPS horse still to run is Kirsca De Thaix, a €200,000 purchase, and the bumper prospect Ksar Fatal.

Planning for the future it may be but it represents a big punt on the ‘K’ generation. It will be very interesting to see how this crop fares by season’s end.

IT’s rare enough that a horse with a bit of eye-catching form from the summer, such as that huge win at Tipperary by Salvator Mundi, remains favourite for the Supreme Novices’ in the new year. With Mullins so dominant at the Festival in recent years, and with no obvious stand-out for the race in Britain so far, the DRF novice races may yet have a say in who will be favourite but you expect Salvator Mundi will be short enough.

It’s worth a quick look back at the record of the Mullins ‘shorties’ in the Supreme. The yard has had five wins in the last 12 years, but also had seven short-priced beaten favourites in the race. It’s interesting to note that only Douvan and Appreciate It of his winners were outright favourites.

It wouldn’t exactly give you confidence in a horse who looked to have a few questions still to answer at Punchestown.

ALL the modern day blanket focus on Cheltenham can just be a bit of a pain for huge parts of the season – especially the ‘straight to Cheltenham’ targets that are making January to March of much less interest to genuine jumping fans.

One of the weekend race names, the Sky Bet Club Handicap Hurdle (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier) at Haydock brought back memories of a very popular horse.

The Mary Reveley-trained Cab On Target never in fact raced at the Cheltenham Festival proper until he appeared in the Champion Hunter Chase as an 11-year-old. It’s hard to imagine such a scenario these days.