AN interesting Twitter thread this week posed the question “what would you miss most if things went back to “how they used to be”. One answer amusing was – “not knowing the answer to everything.”! I’m not sure though if even Google or ChatGPT could tell us with any certainty who will win today’s Derby at Epsom.

For a classic that was supposed to traditionally shape the breed, this year’s Derby has a strange look to it. The cream comes to the top and, as we have seen in jump racing, that cream tends to settle among the bigger stables. Mullins, Henderson, Elliott, de Bromhead – the bulk of your Cheltenham winners in recent times have come from there.

The Derby’s roll of honour too has familiar names repeated over the last few decades – O’Brien, Gosden, Stoute, Appleby, the current crop are responsible for 15 of the last 23 winners this century. And of the others, Oxx, Bolger and Weld, are names you expect to see there.

This year, it’s a new crew that are making a presence – Johnston, Harrington, Murphy, Walker, Balding the younger – all looking for the ultimate classic win.

Before Donnacha O’Brien’s Alder was taken out, there was a theme of sons taking over from their fathers. Andrew Balding with The Foxes will bid to emulate his father’s triumph way back with Mill Reef, and while John Gosden has not handed in his licence yet, son Thady will share the family success in the wake of Benny The Dip and Golden Horn, should Arrest prevail. Charlie Johnston will bid to better his father’s second with Dee Ex Bee.

The most famous episode in that vein of course occurred when David O’Brien trained Secreto to pip his father’s hot favourite El Gran Senor in 1984.

Sons of stars

And we usually look at the sires, expecting sons of the stars to then produce the goods.

Nine of the 14 are by Galileo or one of his sons, while two more, Auguste Rodin and San Antonio, are out of Galileo mares and My Dear Friend a grandson via Teofilo as his dam sire. Only King Of Steel and Dubai Mile have no Galileo, though the latter is from the Sadler’s Wells line.

Auguste Rodin has no doubts on pedigree – it is perfect. Deep Impact on a top class Galileo mare – that’s your old ‘breed the best to the best’ policy.

Perhaps surprisingly, favourites don’t have that great a record - eight favourites or joint favourites since 2000 (23 years) – 34.7%. In the same timeframe 11 favourites have won the Gold Cup, a much better record, since there was also no race in 2001 - 50%. With all that can happen in a three-mile chase, and usually the classic colts having established themselves, that is surprising statistic.

And not much separates the top six in the market. We could have another Anthony Van Dyck finish with three-quarters of a length separating the first five home. It was also just half a length over the first four in Sir Percy’s year in 2006. Sir Percy beat Dragon Dancer, Dylan Thomas and Hala Bek a short-head, a head and a short-head.

Auguste Rodin, the best of these at two, still holds stable confidence despite his disaster in the 2000 Guineas. Little Big Bear bounded back from that and the stable is in better form. There is a ‘but’ - the ground conditions are very much different. Still, stable confidence is a plus and they were right in the end that Luxembourg was a high-class colt.

Given the threat of disruption from animal rights protesters, Arrest might very well be a headline word. But will it be the Frankel colt? He looked the best of British at Chester. Once upon a time you took your Derby fancies from the traditional two-year-old quality races – but Arrest has a Ffos Las win on his CV!

San Antonio is big at 33s considering that longer-priced Ballydoyle runners often make the frame. A Dundalk maiden into a Chester listed race might not seem classic winning form but then Paddington proved well able to cope with the Irish 2000 Guineas contenders off a similar preparation.

Strongest

The Dante is traditionally thought of as the strongest of the trials. Both it and the 2000 Guineas have each produced six winners since 2000. This year the York race also has the advantage of being run on going more on a par with today’s conditions, compared to soft at Chester or Lingfield’s all-weather and soft to heavy for the Leopardstown Trial won by Sprewell.

Sprewell and White Birch give Ireland a great back-up team behind the favourite. White Birch is certainly value on his Dante run but has a bit of a crazy stat against him - no horse drawn 2 has won the Derby since the introduction of starting stalls in 1967. Waipiro in 11 is similarly afflicted. Will Sprewell stay well enough? His pedigree just wouldn’t suggest so, but all of Ireland wish him the best.

I’ve backed a horse I’m not really sure looks the part. But, on his two-year-old form with Arrest and The Foxes, on his current price, you have to have a few euro on Dubai Mile.

His breeding is of the classic calibre. His trainers speak highly of him:- “There’s no horse in this race that’s going there knowing that they are better than us, on official ratings. We’re a Group 1 winner who ran a very good trial over an inadequate trip in the Guineas,” were the comments of trainer Charlie Johnston. “I said beforehand going into the Guineas that if he finished in the first six and hit the line strong I would be delighted and that was exactly what the horse did.” That’s worth a try at odds of 18/1 even if doubts remain.

He doesn’t appear to have the size and scope normally associated with a classic winner? As a son for Roaring Lion out of high class Beach Bunny, by a fine Derby winner in High Chapparal, he was a bargain purchase at €20,000 from Goffs. Roaring Lion’s first season fee was €40,000.

It also leaves us, as last year, going back to the old master. Google would certainly have predicted Shergar would have won for Sir Michael Stoute back in 1981.

His colt Passenger was in a better position than the winner three out in the Dante but missed his run in a pocket of horses. He didn’t actually produce a flying finish but is entitled to have learned a lot from only his second start, in a trial race favoured by his trainer, he too looks each-way value.

THE Prix du Jockey-Club looks a bit diminished this weekend with only 11 runners compared to the likes of 2010 when Lope De Vega defied stall 20 of 22 to beat Planteur. This year has perhaps a young Head on old shoulders - sorry, dreadful pun - as Big Rock aims to give Christopher Head his first classic winner. The British and Irish challenge does not look too strong, unless the Dante form is really boosted at Epsom.