CITY Of Troy is set to go off the shortest-priced favourite for today’s Coral-Eclipse since St Paddy in 1961, but will he prove to be a Sea The Stars or a Motivator?
A total of 17 Eclipse winners had previously won the Derby at Epsom. Of these 17, 10 achieved the double in the same season, the most recent being Golden Horn in 2015.
Sea The Stars and Nashwan are other memorable Derby winners who followed up at Sandown but there have been shock defeats in the Eclipse for Derby winners too.
In 2005 Derby winner Motivator was sent off the 2/5 favourite at Sandown but was beaten by Oratorio.In 2007 Authorized was another wide-margin Derby winner who failed to follow up in the Eclipse, the 4/7 chance losing out to Notnowcato who got an enterprising ride up the stands’ rail from Ryan Moore.
Overall, in the 78 runnings in the post-World War II period, Eclipse favourites have scored on 28 occasions (35.8% strike rate). However, favourites boast a 50% strike rate in the last ten years, with two other winners returning 11/4 and 9/4.
One trend going against City Of Troy is that eight winners since 2014 had previously won over the 10 furlong trip at least once. Just two of today’s field meets the requirement: Brian Meehan’s progressive charge Jayarebe conquered the trip in the Hampton Court Stakes, while one of Stay Alert’s three Stakes wins for Hughie Morrison came over ten furlongs.
Jayarabe and City Of Troy are the only two to have won last time out, as had the last five winners of the Eclipse. A further four of the 12 runners have scored at group level - an essential characteristic according to history.
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