THE week just gone was a necessarily quiet one ahead of Irish Champions Festival, but there were some interesting races at the lower level, not least Happy Jacky winning the Ulster Cesarewitch last Friday.
Happy Jacky is one of the slower horses currently racing on the flat in Ireland, but I mean that as a compliment, as he just stays going from the front, doing similar over hurdles as he has gotten older, and the longest race in the calendar suited him to a tee.
He deserves credit for having to win this race a few times, initially taken on in the middle section before repelling the late challenge of one ridden with restraint, while connections could hardly have hoped for a better summer with him, winning three times despite his advancing years.
The fifth home, Astar, could be the one to take from it. She was the Weld horse for the big two mile handicap on the opening evening of Galway but failed to get in, the trainer thinking the step up in trip would suit despite never having raced over much further than a mile and a half.
Judged on this effort, he is correct and while being keen and returning from a 92-day absence, she travelled as well as any to the three furlong point before being unable to get a run down the inner, keeping on steadily late but too far back. This was a fine run given her yard are in a lull.
Most impressive
Sir Jeremy was the most impressive winner on the card in the second division of the nursery, producing the fastest time of the three seven furlong races for juveniles while carrying the most weight, looking a professional sort as he got into a good position from a wide draw, travelling strongly before easily going clear.
Ronan Whelan’s post-race comments – he is ‘a tall, leggy horse [that] is learning on the job’ – suggest there is more to come.
One of the better eye-catchers on the card came in the first division of that nursery via the third, Kitty Bear. She had run well on debut on good ground before a couple of lesser runs on heavy, but came right back to form here, hung wide from the worst of the draw, doing lots of running in furlongs five and six of a seven-furlong race (fastest in each of those per Course Track) yet still having enough to finish third.
Her rider’s comments that she ran about a bit off the bridle suggests this initial handicap experience should bring her on.
Two places behind her was Buck Barrow who looked to find the sharp seven furlongs here too much and a stiffer test should see him getting competitive off this mark.
Track bias
The going at Navan on Saturday was good, good-firm in places, but even so there was a substantial bias towards the near side, especially on the sprint track.
Of the three races that attracted double figure fields, the first four home were drawn 18, 11, 15 and 17 (16 ran), 12, 15, 2 and 13 (15 ran) and 10, 9, 8 and 7 (11 ran).
El Fontenaro finished seventh in the opening maiden over the shortened six furlongs but did best of those to race on the far side and showed enough pace to suggest a drop to the minimum could suit. The Jarlath Fahey-trained juvenile was backed from 16/1 to 8/1 on the show so a decent run was expected and while a mark of 65 suggests a maiden might be beyond her, she is one to be interested in for nurseries.
The bias was not as pronounced on the round track but Harseva, third in the mile and a quarter handicap. She shaped well having done most of her running down the inside.
An unexposed four-year-old that only started out in April, she shaped well under tender handling on handicap debut at Leopardstown in July but had missed a couple of runs in the 58 days since - this outing perhaps needed as she raced a touch keen.
She made a good move to press the lead over a furlong out only to flatten out late but the way she travelled suggests she is well-handicapped.
THE last major flat meeting in Ireland was Irish Derby weekend back in June, and ahead of ICF (Irish Champions Festival) it might be worth taking a broad sample of trainers to gauge who has been in – and out of – form in the two and a bit months since, with the figures up to date to last Monday.
No Irish trainer has trained more winners in Ireland and Britain since the start of July than Aidan O’Brien, 54 winners from 186 runners for a 29% clip. It should be a matter of how many winners he has this weekend at Leopardstown and the Curragh though his tally at the last five ICFs – five, three, one, three and six, working backwards from 2023 – says plenty about the competitiveness of the fixture.
Judged on pure winners, Joseph O’Brien is next in with 33 wins from 252 runners (13.1%) since the start of July and his horses are in good form after a mid-season lull. Through the end of April, he was 23/91 for a strike rate of 25.2% but that figure dipped to 8.5% in May and June, managing 16 winners from 188 runners in those two months.
Jessica Harrington (22 winners, 13.6% strike rate) and Ger Lyons (20 winners, 19.8% strike rate) are the other trainers to manage at least 20 winners in that period though ICF is hardly the plaything of the bigger yards.
Premier opportunity
Just last year, there were wins for Natalia Lupini, Charles O’Brien, Ken Condon and Gerry Keane, and trainers like that will welcome an added premier handicap opportunity, a new mile race for fillies added to Saturday’s card.
Among those smaller flat yards, those going well since the start of July include Gavin Cromwell (10 winners, 10.1% strike rate) Michael O’Callaghan (nine winners, 16.4% strike rate) and Paul Flynn (eight winners, 20% strike rate).
Of those struggling for winners in this time, Jim Bolger (0/50), Ken Condon (0/22) and Dermot Weld (5/82) stand out.
no tragedy for Ghostwriter
THE Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes may feel like ‘Hamlet’ without the Prince, City Of Troy instead heading for Southwell next week, but his absence offers a way into the race, the horse in the field that has finished closest to him – Ghostwriter – among the most interesting contenders.
He comes from a crop of three-year-olds that are doing well against the older horses in Group 1s, running a good fourth in a deep 2000 Guineas despite plenty going wrong, stumbling early and not handling the track.
His next two starts at Chantilly and Sandown came on ground slower than ideal and probably his best run yet came when third in the Juddmonte International, no match for the first two, but clear of the rest.
It can be argued that he has lost all four of his Group 1 starts but this might be the weakest field he has faced at the top level, and he is improving as the season progresses, just as he did last year.
He would want the ground to stay good and will need to settle but at possibly a double-figure price, makes some appeal as a City Of Troy proxy.